The ledger, through November 13
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.38°F at day 1 and 4.65°F at day 7, over 738,050 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerFriday, November 13, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1677
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 14–November 13, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 68,598 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 68,079 |
| Day 3 | 2.99 | 2.81 | 67,995 |
| Day 4 | 3.29 | 3.12 | 67,999 |
| Day 5 | 3.80 | 3.57 | 67,995 |
| Day 6 | 4.35 | 4.13 | 67,754 |
| Day 7 | 4.74 | 4.65 | 55,053 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.96 | 34,532 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 38,947 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 34,600 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.81 °F | of 34,604 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.57 °F | of 34,602 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 34,594 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.35 °F | of 17,204 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 17,136 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.35 °F | of 17,115 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.37 °F | of 16,941 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 33,998 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.99 °F | of 33,391 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.8 °F | of 33,393 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.74 °F | of 20,459 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.49 °F | of 30,286 October 14–November 13, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1677 · laid 2026-11-13T00:25:32Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 8c93cac09dd8e7576f1ea7ade207c72c018ae690ad362b07c65f5e66efa7f048