New York's forecast for Wednesday has moved 7°F warmer
40°F in the 20261110T18:00Z run, 47°F in the 20261112T12:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 3 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.
RevisionsThursday, November 12, 2026New York, New York
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Milepost 1675
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Wednesday, November 18 at 12Z in New York, that trail runs from 40.4°F in the 20261110T18:00Z cycle to 47.0°F in the 20261112T12:00Z — a move of +6.6°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Wednesday at 12Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
6.6 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 3 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
10.2 °F | normal 6.6 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1675 · laid 2026-11-12T22:25:30Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261112T12:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Stores
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · New York, New York (40.713, -74.006) · by rule, at build
- Digest
- b4969c61ebdb6fdd45f97d5d41346d0fa1e114cf333c030d8f92457aae5e7596