The ledger, through November 12
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.38°F at day 1 and 4.66°F at day 7, over 748,906 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerThursday, November 12, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1664
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 13–November 12, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 69,289 |
| Day 2 | 2.69 | 2.57 | 69,226 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.81 | 69,219 |
| Day 4 | 3.31 | 3.14 | 69,223 |
| Day 5 | 3.83 | 3.60 | 68,991 |
| Day 6 | 4.38 | 4.16 | 68,901 |
| Day 7 | 4.75 | 4.66 | 56,050 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.98 | 35,136 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 39,682 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 35,212 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.81 °F | of 35,216 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.6 °F | of 35,214 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.66 °F | of 35,205 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 17,431 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 17,442 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.37 °F | of 17,419 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.37 °F | of 16,641 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 34,077 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 34,003 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.83 °F | of 33,777 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.75 °F | of 20,845 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.48 °F | of 30,721 October 13–November 12, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1664 · laid 2026-11-12T00:25:30Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- cbe75c2b3c0c37eccd23b1b22c8e1b6bb09410eb67329e122cb002dbe2e2d621