Kansas City's forecast for Tuesday has moved 12°F colder
53°F in the 20261109T06:00Z run, 41°F in the 20261111T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 5°F.
RevisionsWednesday, November 11, 2026Kansas City, Missouri
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Milepost 1655
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Tuesday, November 17 at 03Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 53.1°F in the 20261109T06:00Z cycle to 40.7°F in the 20261111T00:00Z — a move of -12.4°F across 8 runs.
The change is larger than the run's own 10th-to-90th percentile spread — the guidance did not merely narrow, it moved off its previous position.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Tuesday at 03Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-12.4 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 10 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
5.4 °F | normal 12.4 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1655 · laid 2026-11-11T10:25:29Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261111T00:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Stores
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · Kansas City, Missouri (39.1, -94.579) · by rule, at build
- Digest
- aff662dcf46e708d6c0029b664c72867b5728f6b462b61b73f48d97aa16f60d1