The ledger, through November 11
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.37°F at day 1 and 4.68°F at day 7, over 746,483 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerWednesday, November 11, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1653
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 12–November 11, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.44 | 2.37 | 69,229 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 69,242 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.80 | 69,235 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.14 | 69,013 |
| Day 5 | 3.85 | 3.62 | 68,931 |
| Day 6 | 4.40 | 4.17 | 68,917 |
| Day 7 | 4.80 | 4.68 | 56,062 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.02 | 35,144 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.3 °F | of 39,685 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 35,220 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.8 °F | of 35,224 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.62 °F | of 35,222 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.68 °F | of 35,213 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.35 °F | of 17,435 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 17,448 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.38 °F | of 17,281 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.39 °F | of 16,049 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 34,009 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,011 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.85 °F | of 33,709 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.8 °F | of 20,849 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.47 °F | of 30,723 October 12–November 11, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1653 · laid 2026-11-11T00:25:29Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 52a5bdf61e5d3603c6404546f881c408281a08d5f5b4d0755c60087cfc0501f5