The ledger, through November 10
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.36°F at day 1 and 4.73°F at day 7, over 730,674 settled forecast-observation pairs.
The LedgerTuesday, November 10, 2026The Ledger
JSON
Milepost 1642
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 11–November 10, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.44 | 2.36 | 67,997 |
| Day 2 | 2.69 | 2.56 | 68,010 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.81 | 67,779 |
| Day 4 | 3.34 | 3.15 | 67,706 |
| Day 5 | 3.87 | 3.63 | 67,699 |
| Day 6 | 4.44 | 4.20 | 67,685 |
| Day 7 | 4.85 | 4.73 | 55,061 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.06 | 34,528 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 38,869 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 34,604 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.81 °F | of 34,608 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.63 °F | of 34,606 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.73 °F | of 34,597 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 17,210 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 17,146 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.38 °F | of 16,383 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.42 °F | of 15,152 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 33,393 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 33,171 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.87 °F | of 33,093 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.85 °F | of 20,464 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.47 °F | of 30,353 October 11–November 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1642 · laid 2026-11-10T00:25:28Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 47a3f65fadcad0e5328b3b714c15341f891666cdee4c2aafebdd9d4a11dfd45b