Guidance has run 2.9°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 6,804 pairs is +2.85°F, against +0.05°F averaged over all 81 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The LedgerTuesday, September 29, 2026NBG
JSON
Milepost 1245
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over August 30–September 29, 2026, it lands +2.85°F from the report, across 6,804 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 81 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.85 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 81 August 30–September 29, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1245 · laid 2026-09-29T21:25:15Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 58930f485ef8be03e61fa0dd892d48449adacdab14907d94445dae9453d0a7e9