Guidance has run 2.8°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 6,749 pairs is +2.78°F, against +0.03°F averaged over all 80 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The LedgerTuesday, September 29, 2026NBG
JSON
Milepost 1237
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over August 30–September 29, 2026, it lands +2.78°F from the report, across 6,749 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 80 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.78 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 80 August 30–September 29, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1237 · laid 2026-09-29T00:25:14Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 6208bdaefd8ba65ff76f2df470a2b2c5bc5502dc5f47b493d6b3524b975b2688