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Milepost
1235

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 28 September 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1234

Dallas's forecast for Thursday has moved 8°F colder

88°F in the 20260927T06:00Z run, 79°F in the 20260928T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 8 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 20°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, October 8 at 18Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 87.6°F in the 20260927T06:00Z cycle to 79.2°F in the 20260928T00:00Z — a move of -8.4°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.4 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
20.1 °F normal 8.4 °F
current run
Milepost
1234 · laid 2026-09-28T10:25:13Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260928T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
a742620c9dd7b3d808fa0e2a2e24821fdd43c3419759c2e938bae3e54a373dc5
Machine
JSON