Dallas's forecast for Saturday has moved 14°F colder
95°F in the 20260925T12:00Z run, 81°F in the 20260926T18:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 21°F.
RevisionsSunday, September 27, 2026Dallas, Texas
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Milepost 1222
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, October 3 at 21Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 95.1°F in the 20260925T12:00Z cycle to 81.4°F in the 20260926T18:00Z — a move of -13.7°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Saturday at 21Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-13.7 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 10 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
21.2 °F | normal 13.7 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1222 · laid 2026-09-27T04:25:13Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20260926T18:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Stores
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · Dallas, Texas (32.777, -96.797) · by rule, at build
- Digest
- bd30ea569f105770eda5c9fc05b1e4d9a82651a895f82e3b49fa2000e09c3595