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Milepost
1215

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 26 September 2026

Dallas, Texas Revisions MILEPOST 1215

Dallas's forecast for Monday has moved 15°F colder

91°F in the 20260924T06:00Z run, 76°F in the 20260925T18:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 26°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, October 5 at 18Z in Dallas, that trail runs from 91.1°F in the 20260924T06:00Z cycle to 75.9°F in the 20260925T18:00Z — a move of -15.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Monday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-15.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
25.6 °F normal 15.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1215 · laid 2026-09-26T04:25:15Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20260925T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
4501c22ed037e750fb0fb3d2b0c9bbb55ae2d540a4a42eb4e6ee0a3cc37480f0
Machine
JSON