Guidance has run 2.4°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 6,827 pairs is +2.45°F, against -0.03°F averaged over all 80 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The LedgerFriday, September 25, 2026NBG
JSON
Milepost 1205
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over August 26–September 25, 2026, it lands +2.45°F from the report, across 6,827 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 80 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | normal -0.0 °F · 1 of 80 August 26–September 25, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1205 · laid 2026-09-25T06:25:14Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Stores
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Tagged
- I-500 Daily Weather · by rule, at build
- Digest
- 0e5c4357790821241ba2f60dd56fa04acd17244d95e2f012cb23568725c2d9fd