{ "number": 998, "headline": "August 3, 2026 Monday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Hints of Atlantic basin activity picking up in the Main Development Region next week as tropical waves finally escape the Saharan Dust over warm ocean waters", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-04", "published": "2026-08-04T01:25:24.184000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 996: Day 215 of 2026.

Day 64 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Still only 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Extreme Fire Danger \u2014> air quality alerts for ongoing fires and smoke across Washington and Oregon with more variable upper-level and near surface winds allow the plumes to drift westward toward the coast.

Huge plumes of Saharan desert dust still coming off the African continent to squelch and suppress tropical convection. The Atlantic basin remains dead. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Ni\u00f1o and is a typical SAL + dust inhibitor that usually decreases by mid-August.

But as part of El Ni\u00f1o, the tropical waves head westward in the Main Development Region (MDR), and encounter strong wind shear and interact with upper-level troughs = complete buzzkill for storm formation \u2014 at least until they can reach the Eastern Pacific or even the Central Pacific (like Dolphin, which was probably an African Easterly Wave, too) .

Seeing some signs of a brief window of more favorable conditions in the MDR into next week, but still very weak signals.

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CONUS Water Vapor \u2014 Strong Mid-Level Trough cutting through Texas into the Southeast

Eastern Pacific: No activity for the next 7-days \u2014> typical for the EPAC as the basin typically bursts with activity

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is close to major hurricane strength and has evolved this time from the large tractor tire eye to a smaller more compact one with tighter inner-core.

Quite unusual to see a large eye typhoon transition into a smaller one! I\u2019d put intensity on satellite near T 6.0 \u2014> 115 knots, so on an upswing again over warm ocean waters.

North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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A tropical disturbance approaches the eastern coast of Florida later in the week with plenty of tropical moisture. Maybe something to monitor aside from uptick in rainfall.

East of the Rockies will tranistion to more northerly flow \u2014 dry and cooler out of Canada. That\u2019s anti-heat dome for the eastern U.S.

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days

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Mid-August still appears unsettled across the Great Lakes and Northeast with repeated troughs \u2026 and that means temperatures are knocked down from what could be the dog days of August with heat domes. Good news \u2014 as we are quickly running out of summer.

Current Temperatures \u2014 8:30 PM ET

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Only in the 50s and 60s across the Northern Rockies with comfortable 70s and 80s across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic this evening. Perfect.

Current Temperature Anomaly \u2014 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average temperatures were -0.7\u00b0F below normal!

High Temperatures next 9-days \u2014> August 12th (Wednesday)

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Heat remains across the Western U.S. and Texas, but not seeing any major heat wave for the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, or the Northeast through August 12th.

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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30s and 40s popping up in the norther Rockies, and only in the 40s and 50s across the Northeast, too!

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Perfect \u2014 only 70s for the central U.S. but 100s in the Plains heading into Texas and then across the West

Next 7-days | Week 1 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Week 2 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014 not entirely dead but < 10% chance through 2-weeks

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Dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of \u201cghost town\u201d through August 18th except for 5 members.

EPS Full Physics \u2014 Tracks next 15-days \u2014 way at the end, tropical waves develop in the Bahamas \u2014 a tiny signal, but it\u2019s there!

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AIFS Machine Learning Next 15-days: more action out of the MDR with higher / moderate signal of something developing in mid-August

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Tropical Waves \u2014 Lined up 5 deep from the Pacific to coast of Africa, but nothing is flagged as developing

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None of the waves in either Eastern Pacific or North Atlantic are marked through 7-days for development. 0%

A healthy tropical wave coming off African coast into the Atlantic tonight

Tropical Atlantic Convection from Squall Cloud

Not much to mention! The yellow/orange is dry and stable air at mid-levels.

SST and Anomaly

Sub-26\u00b0C = green still cutting into the MDR through the central Atlantic. That\u2019s near the 30-year climatology so the \u201cbare minimum\u201d. Atlantic is not open for business until you get in to the Gulf and Caribbean, and there the wind shear is wiping everything out.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. Enormous SAL event happening now, and will continue for the next 5-days and not stopping after that!

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AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, peeping twin waves in the MDR in 7-9 days that bear watching \u2014 especially with the AIFS-Ensemble latching on.

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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JTWC only at 95-knots with slow weakening into weekend, but not quite yet a landfall in China.

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SSTs \u2014> massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to over 31\u00b0C water in the path of Dolphin

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Ensemble Track into China from Google Deep Mind shows a northward bend in the mean as Dolphin approaches the coast in 5-6 days.

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EPS 12z (full-physics) was WNW right along the coast.

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ECMWF 18z | Updated has a coastal impact but not quite a landfall

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962 mb would be near major hurricane intensity with a MASSIVE wind field

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HAFS-A 850 mb Wind Nest \u2014> Dolphin has a very large wind field & it is expanding even more in the days ahead

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Dolphin near the coast of China, then an abrupt right turn to the north \u2014 so there is still uncertainty about an actual landfall in China, or instead into Korea \u2014 we\u2019ll know more on Tuesday.

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See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information | 407 for Year-To-Date!

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Building Weather Trader is underway \u2014 archive + real-time weather forecast markets. It assembles the last 10-15 years of my private sector experience and expertise.

Extreme Fire Danger \u2014> air quality alerts for ongoing fires and smoke across Washington and Oregon with more variable upper-level and near surface winds allow the plumes to drift westward toward the coast.

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