{ "number": 996, "headline": "July 30, 2026 Thursday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Super Typhoon Dolphin with multiple eyewall replacement cycles. Tropical Atlantic about to be blanketed in Saharan Air Layer and dust to end July, but may perk up into August 10th.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30T19:30:34.767000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Huge plume of Saharan desert dust coming off the African continent this evening to squelch and suppress tropical convection. To say the Atlantic tropical basin is dead would be an understatement. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Ni\u00f1o and the typical SAL + dust inhibitor. However, as the tropical waves head westward in the Main Development Region, they encounter strong wind shear and interact with upper-level troughs = complete buzzkill for storm formation \u2014 at least until the tropical waves reach the Eastern Pacific or even the Central Pacific (like Dolphin, which was probably an African Easterly Wave, too)

The Gulf of Mexico (America) is rather clear except for storms related to a frontal boundary and digging trough hung up over the Florida peninsula.

CONUS Water Vapor and the Unusually Strong Mid-Level Trough

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Genevieve is slowly weakening over much cooler < 26\u00b0C ocean temperatures. But it will take a while to spin down the vigorous formerly Category 5 circulation.

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Super Typhoon Dolphin (12W) has been repeatedly undergoing eyewall replacement cycles and cannot figure out how to keep an eye intact \u2014 and therefore has probably peaked at Category 5 already. We\u2019ll see if this next version of Dolphin can achieve a stable inner-core. Regardless, it is 8-10 days from landfall \u2014 potentially in China.

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This is forecast post number 994: Day 211 of 2026.

Day 60 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to renewing paid subscribers and supporters! Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Forecast post 1,000 in a week!

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North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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Nothing out west and for Texas \u2026 but significant rain for the Midwest and Corn Belt + the southeast including Florida.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 12-days

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Plenty of troughs / shortwaves coming from the Pacific and Arctic into the northern Lower 48 to disrupt heat dome formation. Running out of summer quickly!

Atlantic Tropics \u2014> dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of \u201cghost town\u201d through August 12th

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Tropical Waves \u2014 active circulation over Senegal with heavy convection, but the water is too cool once it emerges over the Atlantic

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None of the waves in either Eastern Pacific or North Atlantic are marked through 7-days for development. 0%

Tropical Atlantic Convection from Squall Cloud

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It saves me 10-minutes each day by having my own satellite imagery. Hopefully you can enjoy it too!

SST and Anomaly

sub-26\u00b0C = green still cutting into the MDR through the central Atlantic. That\u2019s near the 30-year climatology so the \u201cbare minimum\u201d. Atlantic is not open for business until you get in to the Gulf and Caribbean, and there the wind shear is wiping everything out.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. Enormous SAL event happening now.

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Tropical Waves are more convectively active over the African continent this evening (squall.cloud) \u2014 a strong one about to emerge into the Atlantic but too far north.

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Ensembles during the next 15-days (AIFS) do show a hint off something in the 10-15 days range across the MDR

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AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward but nothing catches fire or even looks like it \u2014 and into second week of August, the trade winds are screaming westward through the Caribbean. Again, peeping the twin waves in the MDR in 10-12 days. Something to believe in!

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Eastern Pacific | Cat 1 Hurricane Genevieve

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Weakening to a tropical storm in next 12-hours, and becomes a remnant TS force low by this weekend

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Still plenty of wind energy with Genevieve \u2014 it was briefly a Category 5

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Global SST Anomaly \u2014 full tilt El Ni\u00f1o

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Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

Massive Super Typhoon Dolphin has plateaued with repeated \u201ceyewall replacement cycles\u201d \u2014> ERC but may be making another comeback.

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At times, Dolphin has looked great, but lately eyewall issues \u2014> More of this WPAC floater at squall.cloud

JTWC at 130-knots but not indicate re-intensification. That might be too conservative.

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JTWC: THE PRIMARY FACTOR CAPPING INTENSIFICATION IS SUCCESSIVE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE CONCOMITANT EXPANSION OF THE EYE.

SSTs \u2014> still a massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to 31\u00b0C water in the path of Dolphin

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Ensemble Track into China from Google Deep Mind in 10-days (risk!)

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923 mb from HAFS-A in 72-hours is probably still Category 5! It will massively increase in size.

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 12z shows evolution of Super Typhoon \u2014 will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan or Korea or China. Way too soon to say.

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More activity on the way in the Western Pacific Typhoon Factory!

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See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information | 400 for Year-To-Date!

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Huge plume of Saharan desert dust coming off the African continent this evening to squelch and suppress tropical convection. To say the Atlantic tropical basin is dead would be an understatement. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Ni\u00f1o and the typical SAL + dust inhibitor. However, as the tropical waves head westward in the Main Development Region, they encounter strong wind shear and interact with upper-level troughs = complete buzzkill for storm formation \u2014 at least until the tropical waves reach the Eastern Pacific or even the Central Pacific (like Dolphin, which was probably an African Easterly Wave, too)

The Gulf of Mexico (America) is rather clear except for storms related to a frontal boundary and digging trough hung up over the Florida peninsula.

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