{ "number": 993, "headline": "July 27, 2026 Monday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic tropics very quiet into mid-August but Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o with Fausto, Genevieve, and soon monster Super Typhoon Dolphin", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-28", "published": "2026-07-28T01:18:12.703000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Atlantic tropics remain very quiet this evening \u2014 with minimal convective activity with tropical waves from Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds.

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way north of Hawaii in next few days but weakening to a tropical storm, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve at Category 4 (130-knots) off the coast of Mexico also slowly weakening after reaching Category 5 earlier on Monday.

Massive Super Typhoon Dolphin (12W) will rapidly intensify to Category 5 with potential of T 8.0 (170-knots) on the table assuming the structure of Dolphin does not entrain dry air or see any shear. This would be a good candidate as a \u201cSprinter\u201d rapid intensification case.

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This is forecast post number 992: Day 208 of 2026.

Day 57 of Atlantic Hurricane Season

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to new paid subscribers and supporters. Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing forecast post 1,000.

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Dry as a bone and hot across Texas and beneath the Western U.S. heat dome with minimal monsoon moisture making it out of the Pacific. Huge rainfall totals yet again across the Gulf coast and Northeast


Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Wednesday Evening

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Western Lower 48 turning dryer in the coming days, and weeks ahead with a major heat dome building for the dog days of Summer.

Major exception: the Northeast with unsettled and wet weather due to multiple troughs and strong storm system

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 2.6\u00baF above normal

High Temperatures next 9-days through Wednesday August 5th

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Major heat across the Western half of the Lower 48 with the Great Lakes and Northeast largely escaping it with much cooler 70s and 80s rather than 100s.

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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Still comfortably cool across the Great Lakes Northeast with 50s and 60s.

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Lower 48 average high at 90.6\u00b0F with 13% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100\u00b0F \u2014> heat dome baking!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 \u2014> July 27 to August 2

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Week 2 \u2014> August 3 to August 9

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014> dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of \u201cghost town\u201d through August 11th

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NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.

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Tropical Waves are more convectively active over the African continent this evening (squall.cloud)

SSTs still show the sub-26\u00b0C green shading intruding into the central MDR and eastern MDR (Main Development Region)

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And, the overall MDR is cooler than normal with warmth heading into the subtropics between 20\u00b0N to 30\u00b0N

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Briefing from celsius.earth/oceans shows the MDR is running near the last 30-years climatology but the Atlantic MDR SST is -0.63\u00b0C cooler than the tropical mean (relative SST) \u2014> large scale signal = Leaning Quiet

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AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward but nothing catches fire or even looks like it \u2014 and into second week of August, the trade winds are screaming westward through the Caribbean.

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Eastern Pacific Hurricanes | Cat 4 Genevieve and Cat 1 Fausto

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Satellite Imagery for Eastern Pacific basin: Squall Cloud link

Major Hurricane Genevieve at 150 mph (Category 4) \u2014 slow weakening underway

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Fausto + Genevieve happily continue their lifecycles for next several days not directly affecting land

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Fausto maintains Tropical Storm status skirting just north of the Hawaiian Islands

Western Pacific: Massive Super Typhoon Dolphin soon to rapidly intensify far out by Wake island

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JTWC is up to 145-knots at 72-hours (very rapid intensification) and I suspect we\u2019ll be there in 24-hours (this time tomorrow)

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SSTs \u2014> massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to 31\u00b0C water in the path of Dolphin \u2014> Super Typhoon in 3-4 days

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HAFS-A seems to have some numerical stability issues with the full-tilt buzzsaw structure of Dolphin in next 48-72 hours \u2014> Category 5+

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HAFS-A drops to 901 mb \u2014> Category 5

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And, the system goes right over some of the warmest water on the planet on its way toward Japan > 30\u00b0C

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z also shows development of massive central Pacific Typhoon \u2014 will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan.

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See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!

Next 10 to 15 days: Ensemble Tracks (50-members ECMWF EPS 12z) shows huge number of members with landfall risk

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Similar story for Google Deep Mind \u2014> but this is a 15-day forecast as Dolphin will take all that time to cross the western north Pacific!

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Atlantic tropics remain very quiet this evening \u2014 with minimal convective activity with tropical waves from Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds.

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way north of Hawaii in next few days but weakening to a tropical storm, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve at Category 4 (130-knots) off the coast of Mexico also slowly weakening after reaching Category 5 earlier on Monday.

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