{ "number": 984, "headline": "July 19, 2026 Sunday Tropical Depression 02L Update", "standfirst": "Tropical Depression 02L formed in the northern Gulf with intensification likely in the coming days with outside shot of a hurricane if Bertha takes a slightly south of due westerly course", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-19", "published": "2026-07-19T15:07:31.156000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Tropical Depression 02L is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday morning.

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NHC 11 AM discussion: \u201cThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system\u2019s initial structure.\u201d

\u201cThe NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI.\u201d

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida panhandle

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You can easily see the mid-level circulation, rather broad, but little organized showers near the center, and pressures remain high around 1011 mb. However, we can expect further consolidation of the convection near the center, and a more typical \u201ctropical storm\u201d look on Monday.

This is forecast post number 985: Day 200 of 2026.

Day 49 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing in the Gulf.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your continued trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing post 1,000!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I\u2019m building many companion sites in addition to weather.city

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The ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014 highly skillful model \u2014 shows a more south of due westward course, and that\u2019s the significant concern if the system does not reach landfall along the Gulf coast. However, that is not the official NHC forecast but within the cone of uncertainty!

Gulf of Mexico SSTs are very warm > 29.5 to 30\u00b0C \u2014 typical for mid-July

Any hurricane intensity can be supported

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Higher End Solutions on a Southern \u2014 Westerly Track! Many major hurricane tracks, but currently that is not the favored solution by NHC. If the system remains disorganized and drifts inland, then limited further development is likely.

ECMWF EPS 00z ensembles next 6-days

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Southwest Monsoon: More rainfall across Arizona and into the Great Basin \u2014 very welcome, but we want to avoid lightning as much as possible even w/rain

TD 02L (to become Bertha) in northern Gulf may be a prolific rainmaker for the Florida panhandle and western Gulf coastline even if a tropical system does not form.

A trough in the Northeast \u2014> unsettled weather. Hopefully end the smoke problems \u2014 although the Canadian forest fires will likely continue for weeks. Boatloads of rainfall likely with cooler conditions.

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Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Impressive period of troughing across the Northeast \u2014> cooler than normal, unsettled for second half of July.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 2-Weeks

Week 1 \u2014> July 19 to July 25

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The Northeast cool spot shows up well (blue+ green) + Arizona + Texas clouds and rain. Otherwise summer time heat reigns.

Week 2 \u2014> July 26 to August 1

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Week 2 also slightly below normal in the Northeast. But much of the Lower 48 is very warm

14-day Global Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly Pattern

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Impressive El Ni\u00f1o pattern \u2026 and generally warm continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Antarctica is much colder than normal.

Global SST Anomaly \u2014> full tilt El Ni\u00f1o

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Atlantic Tropical Outlook next 7-days

Tropical Storm 02L in the Gulf of Mexico

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Sea Surface Temperatures still in the under 26\u00b0C (green) cutting into 15\u00b0N latitude in the Main Development Region (MDR)

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The subtropics are much warmer than normal in a band \u2026 but neutral or even cooler that normal in the MDR tropical Atlantic. The waters off coast of Northeast U.S. and Canada are chilly! SST Anomaly:

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Tropical Waves

2 in the Atlantic but neither convectively active due to presence of Saharan Air

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ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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HRRR 12z shows evolution of Bertha over the next 48-hours on a WNW track to east of boot of Louisiana

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NASA Dust Forecast next 10-days

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Next 15-days \u2014 not seeing any strong signals through end of July outside of the Gulf (Tropical Depression 02L)

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Eastern Pacific Tropics

Tropical Storm Elida (05E) continues on a northward track. Tropical Depression 06E will become Hurricane Fausto.

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Elida\u2019s convection if being maintained by a trough interaction \u2014 as you can see the fanning out of cloud shield to the north ahead of the hurricane \u2026 similar to a recurving Atlanta hurricane off the east coast of the U.S.

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Elida eventually loses its convection and inner-core, but tropical moisture will push northward (quite far indeed) \u2014 but not expecting showers in California.

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Ocean Temperatures off the West Coast are very chilly (as usual) and can\u2019t support a hurricane, but Elida is going to have some help with a mid-latitude trough

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Even with chilly ocean surface temperatures, the presence of an upper-level trough to the west of Elida is maintaining convection, and quite far north! Check out the rainfall plume up to latitude of San Francisco Bay.

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Parade of systems lined up \u2026 2 more of them could become named storms

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SST \u2014> very warm across entire tropical Eastern Pacific basin

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Tropical Depression 06E \u2014> Fausto tracking WNW through next 5-days remaining a powerful hurricane into late coming week.

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Heading in the general direction of Hawaii \u2026 we\u2019ll see if it can get close to the Big Island as the SSTs are quite warm to keep Fausto alive. NHC has a maximum intensity in the 24-hour forecast points of 95 knots, on the precipice of Category 3 (major)

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Fausto should become a Major Hurricane

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More storms on the way \u2014 2 or perhaps 3 in next 12-days

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Activity in the Eastern Pacific continues to be ramped up into August.

Western Pacific

No currently active systems but watching the Philippines in 4-days for a depression to form and then move westward in the South China Sea

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Rather quiet out here on the heels of Super Typhoon Bavi, which makes sense for the tropical atmosphere in mid-July to take 2-weeks to \u201crecover\u201d from a massive storm. But with the Super El Ni\u00f1o, any area of convection could spin-up relatively quickly once the basin moistens back up.

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

Weather Trader Roadmap

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Where is this \u201cWeather Trader\u201d newsletter headed? No where, and this Substack hosted blog will continue onward. I will have more time/opportunity to expand into other topics, too, once I can pre-wire all of the maps/content that is currently download, and cut-and-paste. There will be companion sites, and services that will allow (paid) subscribers to interrogate the models, get their own customized point forecasts and/or regional views, including maps and charts. The development is extremely rapid with Claude Code (not joking), and your continued support is appreciated but also necessary. What has been shipped in the past week? Freely available services: hottestsince.com / coldestsince.com / wettestsince.com / driestsince.com / weather.city, and precipitation.earth is being built with celsius.earth after that. I currently have a list of 20 high-priority additional sites/services.

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

NHC 11 AM discussion: \u201cThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system\u2019s initial structure.\u201d

\u201cThe NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI.\u201d

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