{ "number": 981, "headline": "July 15, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Thick smoke from Canadian wildfires will ride the ridge (heat dome) with temperatures in the 100s around Washington D.C. and one lonely 20% chance of development in Gulf", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-15", "published": "2026-07-15T18:38:12.182000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Major Canadian Fires will blanket thick smoke across the Northeast U.S. downstream of a massive heat dome

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Visible satellite shows the very dense smoke aloft.

Canada has a lot of lightning caused wildfires and enormous reservoir of forest that is in a constant state of renewal. The flash drying of a major heat dome e.g. 100\u00b0F temperatures after rather dry spring = plenty of fuel to burn, and that\u2019s a healthy forest. From Canada\u2019s Wildfire Service

This is forecast post number 982: Day 197 of 2026.

Day 45 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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New maps! My favorite parameter with RRFS-A

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HRRR Smoke Forecast (entire column, not surface) over the next 24-hours

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Much of this thick smoke will remain aloft, but eventually the visibility will degrade as the heat dome suppression / descent of air starts making more unhealthy conditions near the surface.

Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Check out the Southwest Monsoon! Huge rainfall across Arizona and into the Great Basin \u2014 very welcome, but we want to avoid lightning

Area in NE Gulf may be a prolific rainmaker for the Florida panhandle and western Gulf coastline

High Temperatures on Wednesday (Today)

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Lower 48 average high is 88.8\u00b0F and 232 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2014> HOT

and 34 million at least 100\u00b0F

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Washington D.C. \u2014> 102\u00b0F would break the record high for Today

More at Hottestsince.com and keep track at weather.city

Thursday Low Temperatures

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Thursday High Temperatures

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Similar Story for Thursday with almost 20 million at least 100\u00b0F including the mid-Atlantic

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Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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The impressive central U.S. ridge + a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.

Also, note the troughs digging into the Northeast into Days 5-8 \u2014> back to the cooler/unsettled pattern for mid-July.

NWS Precipitation Next 66-hours \u2014> Saturday Morning

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My favorite parameter \u2014 next 18-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

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HRRR Next 18-hours simulated Radar through Thursday 4 AM ET

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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ECMWF 06z zoom \u2014 through 6-days shows the trough formation but any surface circulation remains over land

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ICON 12z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 2-Weeks

Week 1 \u2014> July 15 to July 21

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Week 2 \u2014> July 22 to July 28

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014 One area of interest at 20% in 7-days from non-tropical trough \u2014> tropical transition potential (low)

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Tropical Waves off the coast of Africa are quite robust! But the environment just to the west is hostile (shear + dry air) and cooler water

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NASA Dust \u2014 notice the tropical waves turning the dust cloud cyclonically!

Saharan Air Layer is a hugely negative influence on storm development aside from the dust. The air near the boundary layer is hot, dry, and sinking.

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I seee the SSTs are now > 27\u00b0F up to about 15\u00b0N latitude, but still too cool above that across the NE Atlantic including part of the MDR

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The subtropics are well above normal \u2014 weaker trade winds and clear skies \u2014> warming

Day 5 ECMWF 00z Ensembles \u2014 show the 20% development in the corner of the NE Gulf of Mexico \u2026 kind of amusing that we are watching such a tiny area for Atlantic tropical storm development, but \u201cclose-to-home\u201d is usually the typical situation in strong El Ni\u00f1o years.

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Next 7-days animation \u2014 anything that develops could move westward and intensify even into a major hurricane. But the chances are very low right now.

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Next 15-days \u2014 maybe some hints of Eastern MDR tropical wave

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Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014> Tropical Storm Elida 05E

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Should become a hurricane in next 12-24 hours

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Maximum intensity 80-85 knots \u2014> Category 2

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Tropical Storm Elida is expected to become a mid-range Category 2 Hurricane Elida \u2014 then comes Fausto behind it along the coast of Mexico.

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Invest 90C \u2014> Perhaps a strong tropical storm or hurricane well south of Hawaii in the Central Pacific basin. First name for 2026 out here is Lala

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Western Pacific has gone quiet, but with the Super El Ni\u00f1o, any area of convection could spin-up relatively quickly.

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Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city

Still working on \u201cbroadcast quality\u201d maps, but getting the look and feel perfect is a laborious process!

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Visible satellite shows the very dense smoke aloft.

Please give weather.city a try \u2026 more features added daily, including Areal Impacts , Population Impacts , and Costco Store location weather .

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