{ "number": 980, "headline": "July 14, 2026 Tuesday Summer Weather", "standfirst": "Thick smoke from Canadian wildfires will ride the ridge (heat dome) with temperatures in the 100s around Washington D.C.", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-15", "published": "2026-07-15T02:27:47.344000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Major Canadian Fires will blanket thick smoke across the Northeast U.S. downstream of a massive heat dome

Visible satellite earlier today showed the very dense smoke aloft.

\"\"

Canada has a lot of lightning caused wildfires and enormous reservoir of forest that is in a constant state of renewal. The flash drying of a major heat dome e.g. 100\u00b0F temperatures after rather dry spring = plenty of fuel to burn, and that\u2019s a healthy forest.

\"\"

From Canada\u2019s Wildfire Service
However, a byproduct is thick smoke downstream into the Northeast that blankets huge population is a dystopian cityscape especially with added extreme heat. The thicker upper-level smoke will likely keep temperatures much cooler than otherwise acting as a haze blocking some solar radiation.

\"\"

Most active current convective situation is in Texas and across the Deep South into Southeast

\"\"

This is forecast post number 981: Day 196 of 2026.

Day 44 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to new subscribers are everyone who upgraded/gifted subscriptions. Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing post 1,000!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Current subscribers can add gift subscriptions at 50% off, or upgrade to the Founder\u2019s Level for additional perks.

Please give weather.city a try \u2026 more features added daily, including Areal Impacts, Population Impacts, and Costco Store location weather \u2014 next is Dollar Generals (19,000+)

Give a gift subscription

To Receive Published Posts Via Email and Substack App

HRRR Smoke Forecast (entire column, not surface) over the next 48-hours

\"\"

Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

\"\"

Check out the Southwest Monsoon! Huge rainfall across Arizon

\"\"
\"\"

Wednesday Low Temperatures

\"\"

High Temperatures on Wednesday

\"\"

Lower 48 average high is 89.1\u00b0F and 233 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2014> HOT

and 37 million at least 100\u00b0F

\"\"

Washington D.C. \u2014> 101\u00b0F would tie the record high for Wednesday, July 15 \u2014> Hottestsince.com

\"\"

Thursday High Temperatures

\"\"

Similar Story for Thursday

\"\"

High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 until Thursday, July 23rd

\"\"

Into Summer \u2014> Height Anomalies don\u2019t tell entire story \u2026 actual height does!

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> a trough over the Northeast erodes the \u201cheat dome\u201d by end of the week. No longer expecting any tropical development in Gulf.

Normally when you\u2019d see 600 dm, it\u2019d be a major panic for potential record high temperatures everywhere with the entire Lower 48 broiling off the face of the Earth. However, the worst / most anomalous heat is on northern periphery while clouds and rain with tropical moisture is on the underside!

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

\"\"

The impressive central U.S. ridge + a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.

Also, note the troughs digging into the Northeast into Days 5-8 \u2014> back to the cooler/unsettled pattern for mid-July.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Friday Evening

\"\"
\"\"

My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

\"\"

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Friday 2 PM ET

\"\"

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

\"\"

ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

\"\"

Heat Index Earlier on Tuesday \u2014> the shores of Lake Ontario and Erie saw heat index > 110\u00b0F

\"\"

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 was normal 0.0\u00b0F \u2014 the heat dome is creating wet/cloudy conditions on the underside and canceling out the heat in Montana and Dakotas.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

\"\"

Heat dome breaks down finally and cooling into the Northeast by Week 2

Week 1 \u2014> July 14 to July 20

\"\"

Week 2 \u2014> July 21 to July 27

\"\"

Atlantic Tropics \u2014> Back to a Ghost Town

\"\"

Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014> Tropical Depression 05E

\"\"

Major become a mid-range Category 2 Hurricane Elida \u2014 then comes Fausto

\"\"
\"\"

Western Pacific has gone quiet.

Working on upgraded map library (for paid subscribers) here at Weather Trader.

\"\"
\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Visible satellite earlier today showed the very dense smoke aloft.

From Canada\u2019s Wildfire Service However, a byproduct is thick smoke downstream into the Northeast that blankets huge population is a dystopian cityscape especially with added extreme heat. The thicker upper-level smoke will likely keep temperatures much cooler than otherwise acting as a haze blocking some solar radiation.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:13Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-14-2026-tuesday-summer-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "207097153.july-14-2026-tuesday-summer-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/july-14-2026-tuesday-summer-weather", "slug": "july-14-2026-tuesday-summer-weather", "path": "/mp/980/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/980/", "desk_label": "The Record", "digest": "05f63e8de8dd5c2dcef7f4b4552b6edbaf4bf23a55c8a09abc2481f004139242" }