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This is forecast post number 980: Day 195 of 2026.
Day 43 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) and the growing constellation of companion website \u2014 Become a paying subscriber. Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I\u2019m very excited for what\u2019s coming. This is what I\u2019ve been waiting for 15-years now: Finally charting my own course.
Full tilt El Ni\u00f1o underway \u2014 eastern Tropical Pacific focused with Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region now nearing Super status (> 2.0\u00b0C anomaly)
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/4c0553a73095b55f.png\")
Dramatic warmth relative to the last 30-year average, but I don\u2019t think we should call that normal considering the \u201cmean state\u201d of the tropical Pacific is an average of two extremes (La Ni\u00f1a + El Ni\u00f1o) and neutral \u2014> that\u2019s why they call it the Southern Oscillation
North Pacific blob is back and intense \u2014 created by -PDO + persistent high pressure and light winds \u2014> lack of upwelling
Super Typhoon Bavi \u201ccold wake\u201d footprint near Philippines, but it will wash out as the water column mixing reverts back to normal \u201cwarm pool\u201d
Atlantic Ni\u00f1a (weak) in the equatorial waters with a cool Main Development Region (MDR) and very chilly North Atlantic off the coast of North America.
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But, we\u2019re keeping an eye on the models for potential non-tropical origin development of Bertha in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, this is too far down the road to do much better than probabilities. I\u2019d say \u201ccoin flip\u201d of \u201csomething\u201d developing, but the range of outcomes is nothing to hurricane. More on that after housekeeping announcement \u2014 see more in yesterday\u2019s Sunday Evening Weather Update
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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days
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The heat dome across the Great Lakes shows up as a clockwise closed circulation within the moisture parameter (IVT)
Formation of a trough bent across North Florida and the Southeast Atlantic underneath the strong ridge \u2014> potentially spins up into Bertha!
1 or 2 Eastern Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes likely in next 3-7 days with moisture from the remnants swooped up into the Western US to power the monsoon
Aside from the \u201cclose to home\u201d even during an intensifying El Ni\u00f1o, the tropical waves coming off Africa are looking more robust, but they quickly sputter out as they move over the \u201ccooler water\u201d of the top half of the MDR.
Central Pacific also seeing potential
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Check out the robust tropical wave off Africa through 5-6 days that shows some circulation potential. The storm trackers are showing a surface low pressure, so maybe this will qualify as a TD or very briefly a TS. Perhaps the upper-level environment of the far eastern Atlantic may be more favorable away from the strong wind-shear blasting out of the Pacific.
Full physics ensembles (00z) show a small signal (20%) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and it has come alive with the AIFS catching onto the signal yesterday. This seems to be a trend that the AIFS \u201csniffs\u201d out the potential 12-24 hours ahead of the full-physics systems.
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More \u2014 a lot more members with the AIFS-ENS at 06z with \u201cBertha\u201d
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Still a few days before we can be sure about the formation of Bertha near the U.S. coastline \u2014 so we\u2019ll keep watching, not much other choice!
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Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic \u2014 the entire basin along 15\u00b0N to 25\u00b0N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.
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The tropical systems expected to form in the Eastern Pacific are often tropical waves that fail to develop in the Atlantic!
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/de4c6c0592212ddf.png\")
3 Moderate + 1 High Chance of development \u2026 another weak lemon drop, and all could spin up at any time \u2026 busy ITCZ/monsoon trough out in the EPAC!
Next names Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan
No surprise as the SSTs are VERY warm
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Actual SSTs up to 27\u00b0C near Hawaii and pushing 30\u00b0C along the coast of Mexico
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Quite a blob of convection with a swirl south of Hawaii \u2014 during El Ni\u00f1o the Central Pacific can get very busy
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Precipitable Water \u2014 my favorite variable shows 4 concurrent areas of circulation in next 2-days.
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Day 5 Ensemble Tracks
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Day 10 \u2014 more hurricane(s) along coast of Mexico!
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Western Pacific Basin \u2014 one Invest 97W expected to become a storm
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Change in SST over past 3-days compare to prior 3-days
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Actual SSTs actually dip below 26\u00b0F in the wake of Bavi \u2014 but still very warm elsewhere so the WPAC won\u2019t shut down or care about that
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Warm Pool \u2014 Precipitable Water
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/fb374c16ea7b6101.gif\")
Next 5-days Ensemble Tracks
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Help support this newsletter ( nearing post 1,000! ) and the growing constellation of companion website \u2014 Become a paying subscriber. Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I\u2019m very excited for what\u2019s coming. This is what I\u2019ve been waiting for 15-years now: Finally charting my own course.
Full tilt El Ni\u00f1o underway \u2014 eastern Tropical Pacific focused with Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region now nearing Super status (> 2.0\u00b0C anomaly)
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