{ "number": 976, "headline": "July 8, 2026 Wednesday Summer Weather", "standfirst": "Heat dome builds across the Rockies and Midwest but large population centers miss out on extreme heat into mid-July", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-09", "published": "2026-07-09T01:49:05.323000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Scattered convective clusters but rather quiet for early July

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Top story next several days: a heat dome forms out of the Rockies and intensifies into the Midwest and Great Lakes. However, the circulation around it will mean moisture and easterly flow across the Gulf Coast into Texas \u2014> cloudy and wet.

The hottest and driest conditions will be in Montana and the Dakotas into next week. Temperatures over 110\u00b0F to near the Canadian Border.

This is forecast post number 976: Day 189 of 2026.

Day 38 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 very quiet with Super El Ni\u00f1o.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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We almost lost the 6000 meter Heights at 500 mb \u2014 6002 meters (close enough) into early Tuesday. The ridge intensity is trending weaker.

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Normally when you\u2019d see 600 dm, it\u2019d be a major panic for potential record high temperatures. But in Mid-July, it\u2019s normally quite hot, and setting any records is difficult with 150-years of American weather history books full of seemingly unbreakable temperature records.

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Temperature Anomaly Monday Highs \u2014 concentrated 20\u00b0F+ above normal in Montana with smattering of blue (below normal) in the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic with easterly return flow.

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Blend of Models \u2014 Ensemble Mean High Temperatures for Sunday July 12

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The Lower 48 high at 90.1\u00b0F but quite manageable 116 million population at least 90\u00b0F but only 18 million at least 100\u00b0F

This won\u2019t be remotely on same level of the extreme heat we just experienced across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the past week.

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Hottest in Montana at 112\u00b0F

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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The impressive central U.S. ridge forms this weekend downstream of a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.

The origin of the 500 mb high is probably best described as the subtropical eastern Pacific and across the U.S. Southwest.

Also, note the troughs digging into the Northeast into Days 7-10 \u2014> back to the cooler/unsettled pattern for mid-July!

Into Summer \u2014> Height Anomalies don\u2019t tell entire story \u2026 actual height does!

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ECMWF AIFS \u2014 the ridge at 594 dm pushes out of the U.S. Southwest into the northern Plains and then Great Lakes reaching 600 dm in 5-days, but is squished / flattened by lower heights from Canada.

This gets us into middle July.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Saturday Afternoon

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Heaviest rain centered on Ohio River Valley > 2\u201d

My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

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Plenty of moisture continuing to circulate and bubble up with the summer-time air mass across the Eastern U.S. to fire daytime thunderstorms with heavy downpours.

Weather Into Thursday Morning

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Storms firing along a frontal boundary stretching from Denver to Milwaukee

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Friday 2 PM ET

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Scattered monsoon showers and storms across the Rockies \u2014 nice to see \u2014 but those will decrease into weekend with the ridge development.

Widely scattered daytime pop-up storms elsewhere with the most organized convection in the Ohio River Valley.

Weather on Thursday

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 10-days

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

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ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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PWAT variable shows the formation of a stationary frontal boundary with heavy moisture content across the Gulf coast from Texas into Florida \u2014 and that will be the focus for continued clouds and heavy rain keeping temperatures mild.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 7:45 PM ET

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About 80 million population at least 90\u00b0F at 7:45 PM ET

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 1.7\u00b0F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 until Friday July 17th

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Settling into typical mid-July dog-days of summer heat \u2014 but entirely manageable with mainly 80s in the Great Lakes and Northeast.

The track of the heat dome \u2014 clockwise flow \u2014 actually brings cooler Canadian air into the Midwest and Great Lakes leaving the 100s in Montana and the Dakotas.

Low Temperatures on Thursday

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High Temperatures on Thursday

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161 Million at least 90\u00b0F & only 23 million at least 100\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Friday

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Only 20 million at least 100\u00b0F

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Mixed temperature signals into week 2 after the heat dome breaks down.

Week 1 \u2014> July 8 to July 14

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Week 2 \u2014> July 15 to July 21

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014 Ghost Town into mid-July, at least

ECMWF EPS 12z ensembles completely blank to July 23

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Satellite is almost entirely blank as well, with very limited convection. Tough sledding with the Saharan Dust!

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NASA GEOS-5 Dust Forecast Next 10-days

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Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic \u2014 the entire basin along 15\u00b0N to 25\u00b0N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.

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Typhoon Bavi is weakening, now down to 115-knots \u2014 still Category 4, but the large size allows more dry air from the outer environment to enter the eye and disrupt the eyewall convection.

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JTWC Track Forecast misses Taiwan \u2026 and major hurricane intensity

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But the most recent Google Deep Mind 18z forecast ensemble for Bavi is a big shift to the north well away from Taiwan into China in 72-hours

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HAFS-A 18z still tracks near Taiwan but this may shift to the north as well.

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The Western Pacific \u2014 next 12-days \u2014 plenty more tropical storm + Typhoon opportunities! ECMWF EPS 12z ensembles:

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Top story next several days: a heat dome forms out of the Rockies and intensifies into the Midwest and Great Lakes. However, the circulation around it will mean moisture and easterly flow across the Gulf Coast into Texas \u2014> cloudy and wet.

The hottest and driest conditions will be in Montana and the Dakotas into next week. Temperatures over 110\u00b0F to near the Canadian Border.

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