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This is post number 960: Day 167 of 2026. Day 16 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Morning! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season. We\u2019ll also keep track of the daily weather across the Lower 48, and sometimes around the world. No advertisements!
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
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The Tropical Disturbance over South Texas now expected to emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf of America \u2014> and qualify as a tropical depression or tropical storm \u2014> first name is Arthur. NHC has issued a \u201cPotential Tropical Cyclone\u201d advisory for 01L (no name yet)
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NHC Discussion (11 AM ET)
The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.
Regardless of any \u201cnamed storm\u201d development the deep tropical moisture will inundate the coast and deliver \u201cboatloads\u201d \u2014 upwards of 4\u201d-6\u201d+ from Texas into the Mississippi River Valley over next 7-days. This is separate from a powerful Great Lakes storm system with severe weather and also heavy \u2014 and not needed \u2014 rain (update on that later this evening).
Timeline:
Wednesday morning \u2014> named storm formation off coast of Corpus Christi, Texas
Landfall later into early Thursday along TX/LA state line
Continued track through the Deep South \u2014 continuing to focus heavy rainfall with Gulf tropical moisture
A predecessor rainfall event (PRE) is setting up downstream of PTC 01L (Arthur)
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Very soggy pattern! 7-day Rainfall Totals from Blend of Models \u2014> astounding.
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All of this red is at least 2\u201d with many areas of 4\u201d to 6\u201d embedded within \u2026 and we should expect these tropical downpours to deliver a LOT of rain in short order \u2014> gullywashers!
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The Tropical System is embedded within a \u201cdeep layer tropical moisture plume\u201d with origin in Caribbean and into the Gulf of America.
There is also a strong upper-level trough to the north associated with Canadian origin air mass \u2014 and the influence of the mid-latitude weather system (strong trough for mid-June) will provide upper-level jet stream energy to provide a \u201cbaroclinic kick\u201d to the tropical disturbance \u2014> assisting its intensification to Arthur.
This unusual situation can occur when a surface low encounters the jet stream quadrant (right rear) and phases to increase convergence and ascent \u2014> intensification of the surface circulation.
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The red PWAT > 2\u201d and even some 3\u201d areas embedded within the tropical low. Note how the system retains much of its circulation / coherence while within the frontal boundary draped along the Deep South / Gulf coast.
This is a recipe for HUGE rainfall totals with daytime heating + tropical moisture.
More on this later today \u2014 unusually strong land cyclone aided by a Canadian trough \u2014> severe weather and heavy rain
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
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The tropical moisture plume finally breaks down into the Gulf and southern U.S. when a chunk or westward extension of the Bermuda high moves westward to dominate the Gulf of Mexico with high pressure \u2026 but until then, another 5-7-days of deep layer tropical moisture right into the Texas and the Deep South \u2014> rainfall
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A moderate Dust Layer (with Saharan Air) moving across the Main Development Region \u2014 and will reach the Caribbean in 2-3 days before decaying/wringing out with gravity and some convection/storms. Another SAL emerges in 5-6 days to repeat the pattern \u2014 typical for mid-to-late June.
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The Eastern Atlantic much cooler than normal < 26\u00b0C (green actual SST map) and blue anomaly (chilly) \u2014> signal for stability and difficulty sustaining tropical convection = no storm development and squelching of tropical waves.
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Huge cooling across much of the North Atlantic basin compared to last year!
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El Ni\u00f1o underway! Very warm SST anomaly along the equatorial Pacific
But we don\u2019t usually show the actual SST near the Galapagos Islands
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The famous tortoises live on islands usually within cool Equatorial waters \u2026 but we see 27\u00b0C actual SST surrounding their home. Galapagos Giant Tortoise
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Atlantic basin outside of the Gulf of America is rather quiet \u2014 typical for mid-June.
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Tropical Wave Analysis: n = 4 in Atlantic + 1 in Eastern Pacific = none developing.
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Some convection along the ITCZ displaced well south
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Surface low ~1004 mb does develop right along the Texas coast \u2014> Arthur
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Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 7-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry \u2026 very intense trough for mid-June. This trough will fuel a powerful storm system (Low 985 mb)
A Pacific origin trough swoops into the replace the Canadian vortex into next weekend.
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Western Pacific Typhoon \u2014 Slow but steady development of a system in next several days \u2014> Invest 92W
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Full Physics Ensemble Tracks \u2014 2 systems likely \u2026 another following 92W
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
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