{ "number": 957, "headline": "June 11, 2026 Thursday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Busy weather pattern with severe storms across Midwest and Great Lakes. Heavy rain over next week across South with tropical moisture plume.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-11", "published": "2026-06-11T15:39:16.282000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 957: Day 162 of 2026. Day 11 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Morning! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season. We\u2019ll also keep track of the daily weather across the Lower 48, and sometimes around the world.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Help support this newsletter (nearing 1,000!) \u2014> June 2026 Coupon

In case you missed yesterday evening\u2019s tropical update with highlight that Colorado State\u2019s seasonal forecast now matches ours from April 7th \u2014> Wednesday Evening

Headlines for Thursday

Headline Maps \u2014 severe weather event underway across the Midwest and Great Lakes

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Convective Outlook \u2014 Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday (SPC Day 1)

\"\"

SPC Summary: Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin to Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong.

\"\"
Tornado Outlook \u2014 Day 1
\"\"
Severe Wind Outlook \u2014 Day 1

Radar Through 10 AM ET showing mesoscale convective complex

\"\"

HRRR simulated Radar through Friday 2 AM CT

\"\"

Squall line develops later this afternoon/evening and sweeps through the region

Please monitor your local National Weather Service alerts and watch online streaming coverage + local television broadcasts

Boatloads of Rainfall on the Way

Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 10-days

\"\"

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I.

Help Support these posts (now nearing 1,000!) \u2014> June 2026 Coupon

My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

\"\"

Also, note the monsoon moisture in the U.S. Southwest and in the Gulf of California + Baja California \u2014 surging northward.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

\"\"

The large scale flow with the Central American Gyre picks up the remnants of Cristina into the southern Gulf of Mexico with a northerly turn along the Texas coastline. 10% chance of a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche (Low chanc)

The very strong Caribbean \u2014> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume takes a right turn to the east with the Canadian trough in control for a week. Then, the storm track resumes across the northern tier of the Lower 48 with low pressure systems lining up from the Midwest into the Great Lakes.

ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

\"\"

Sharp Canadian trough briefly erases the tropical moisture across the Central and Eastern U.S. into later next week

Tropical > 2\u201d \u2014> boatloads of heavy precipitable water along the Gulf coast (!)

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation + MSLP | Next 6-days

\"\"

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 10:00 AM ET

\"\"

Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 10:00 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 was +3.0\u00b0F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-Days \u2014> Friday June 19th

\"\"

Mini heat wave underway for mid-Atlantic and Northeast with 90s and even some 100s in North Carolina and Virginia into tomorrow. Then Canadian cool front sweeps through the Lower 48 \u2026 60s and 70s for highs in the Midwest and Great Lakes for mid-June \u2014> also no one is complaining.

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

High Temperatures on Thursday | Quick Comparison NWS vs. Blend

\"\"

200 million Americans at least 90\u00b0F

\"\"

Pretty close match between NWS NDFD and Blend of Models for Day 1 high temperatures \u2014 which is great news as forecasters can focus on impactful weather.

\"\"

95\u00b0+ in Washington D.C.

\"\"

94\u00b0F to 96\u00b0F around New York City with heat advisories in place!

\"\"

Cooler in the Midwest \u2014 60s and 70s \u2014> PERFECT

\"\"

60s and 70s in the Dakotas when it could easily be 100\u00b0F

\"\"

Low Temperatures on Friday

\"\"

High Temperatures on Friday

\"\"

Still very hot \u2014> 181 million at least 90\u00b0F and over 24 million at least 100\u00b0F

100s in the Carolinas and Virginia (!)

Weather Pattern

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

\"\"

Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 10-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry \u2026 very intense trough for mid-June.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

\"\"

Much cooler than normal air blankets central Canada and dumps into the Lower 48 with recovery from west to east into late June.

Week 1 \u2014> June 11 to June 17

\"\"

Week 2 \u2014> June 18 to June 24

\"\"

Below normal \u2014 blue \u2014> blankets Canadian border into the northern Lower 48

HRRR Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours \u2014> Saturday 8 AM ET

\"\"

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Sunday morning

\"\"

Huge precipitation totals centered on Kansas City \u2026 2\u201d to 4\u201d+ with widespread 1\u201d-2\u201d across the Corn Belt (good news minus any severe weather)

\"\"
\"\"

Quick Tropical Update in the Atlantic

\"\"

10% chance of a weak tropical wave forming a coherent low pressure in the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf of Mexico) on Friday. Convection will move over Yucatan today with remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina.

\"\"

Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Cyclonic Vorticity Next 4-days

\"\"

Share Weather Trader

Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the beautiful weather maps. Please help increase the visibility of Weather Trader on Substack: Share or Like!

Help support this newsletter (nearing 1,000!) \u2014> June 2026 Coupon

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Help support this newsletter ( nearing 1,000! ) \u2014> June 2026 Coupon

In case you missed yesterday evening\u2019s tropical update with highlight that Colorado State\u2019s seasonal forecast now matches ours from April 7th \u2014> Wednesday Evening

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:13Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/june-11-2026-thursday-spring-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "201602338.june-11-2026-thursday-spring-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/june-11-2026-thursday-spring-weather", "slug": "june-11-2026-thursday-spring-weather", "path": "/mp/957/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/957/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "563194ca3e92d36a73498e41eefc8d7914fe62848aba0c7fec367840d142fe81" }