{ "number": 954, "headline": "June 8, 2026 Monday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Boris and Cristina in Eastern Pacific bringing heavy rain to the Mexico and Central America coasts", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-09", "published": "2026-06-09T00:05:42.040000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 954: Day 159 of 2026. Day 8 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening along and east of the Mississippi River \u2026 heavy rain main threat without organized severe weather.

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Gulf of Mexico has some scattered storms along the coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle but nothing tropical brewing in situ. However, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina (03E) in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Nicaragua may cross into the Bay of Campeche and spin something up there down the road toward weekend.

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Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Tropical Storms Boris and Cristina will be in close proximity to land \u2014 and won\u2019t have a chance to intensify very much beyond a minimal Tropical Storm. However, the heavy tropical moisture will lead to potential flooding in Mexico and Honduras.

Cyclonic Vorticity Next 6-days \u2026 to track the atmospheric circulation (spin) of the tropical systems. Cristina does likely cross from EPAC to Gulf of Mexico, but unlikely to still be a named system (or a tropical depression) but could still maintain enough of a lower level circulation to be a \u201ccrossover event\u201d and not need a new name.

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Tropical Weather Headlines for Monday

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks (12z)

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Into next weekend, watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for low chance (<20%) of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America with input from remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina (03E).

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Flagship model: ECMWF HRES 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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The large scale flow with the Central American Gyre picks up the remnants of an Eastern Pacific tropical system into the southern Gulf (Bay of Campech) \u2026 and then the very strong Caribbean \u2014> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume resumes around the westward extension of the Bermuda High. We\u2019ll be watching this [typical] pattern for the next 2-weeks, at least.

ECMWF 12z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Moisture continues to surge due northward through the central Lower 48 into southern Canada. Heavy rain is primary threat from this very moist air mass with daytime heating. A strong trough / cool front blasts through the Midwest and Great Lakes into the weekend = dry and cooler.

ECMWF 12z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Current Temperatures | RTMA | 6:00 PM ET

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Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 6:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was +1.9\u00b0F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-Days \u2014> Wednesday June 17th.

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Heat wave coming for mid-Atlantic and Northeast with 90s for 2-3 days before the Canadian cool front sweeps through the Lower 48 \u2026 quite impressively cool for mid-June in the Midwest and Great Lakes \u2014> also no one is complaining.

Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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60s and 70s billowing up in the Great Lakes but only 50s in the Northeast.

High Temperatures on Monday

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95 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2026 and 289 million at least 80\u00b0F.

10-day Forecasts from Blend of Models for a few cities

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Minneapolis and Chicago with a nice string of days of perfect weather in the 70s

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Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Strong mid-level trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late in week and then intensifies \u2014 cooler pattern (!) across Central Lower 48 into mid-June.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Week 1 \u2014> June 8 to June 14

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Week 2 \u2014> June 15 to June 21

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Significantly below normal for the middle of the Lower 48 \u2026 6\u00b0F to 8\u00b0F cooler than typical mid-June temperatures

HRRR PWAT + Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours \u2014> Wed 2 PM ET

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Weather Pattern into Tuesday Morning

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Weather Pattern on Tuesday

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Thursday Afternoon

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 10-days

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Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | IR Channel 13 + Water Vapor

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Entire basin is very quiet with any tropical waves showing limited convection. Very little convection in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 or elsewhere in the Atlantic basin.

NASA Dust Forecast Next 10-days

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African dust layers might be significant \u2014 as usual \u2014 but they contain very little dust compared to previous years.

North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days

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4 Tropical Waves \u2014 none developing in the Atlantic, but as they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific, could trigger formation, as we see with Boris and Cristina

Strong Trade Winds but nothing spinning in the Caribbean or the main Atlantic basin

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My favorite parameter \u2014> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 10-days

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Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2\u201d in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics \u2014> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS

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Eastern Pacific is busy with Boris (02E) and Cristina (03E) along Mexico/Central America within the gyre. However, their proximity to land will limit development.

The deep layer moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. \u2014 and we will still be watching for any tropical cyclone development in the southern Gulf in the next several days.

Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season

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2026 Names \u2014> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida

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Tropical Storm Boris (02E)

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Disorganized \u2014 45 mph winds landfall on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Cristina (03E)

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May reach 50-60 mph winds by Wednesday with landfall into early Thursday.

Main threat is heavy rain \u2014> Total Precipitation Next 6-days

Western Pacific Basin \u2014 Typhoon Season \u2014 Quiet next 7-days+

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Global Ocean Temperatures \u2014> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Tropical storms need at least 26\u00b0C SST to form and intensify \u2026 and hurricanes most often become major with 28\u00b0C SST (at least).

There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Ni\u00f1o. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.

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Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 9 00z)

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The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.

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Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what\u2019s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5\u00b0N to 10\u00b0N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we\u2019ll look for areas of disturbed weather \u2014 which means persistent convection \u2014 and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.

The Bermuda High \u2014> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30\u00b0N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.

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Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening along and east of the Mississippi River \u2026 heavy rain main threat without organized severe weather.

Gulf of Mexico has some scattered storms along the coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle but nothing tropical brewing in situ. However, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina (03E) in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Nicaragua may cross into the Bay of Campeche and spin something up there down the road toward weekend.

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