{ "number": 949, "headline": "June 2, 2026 Tuesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Eastern Pacific basin finally sees first tropical depression", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-03", "published": "2026-06-03T01:51:44.745000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 949: Day 153 of 2026. Day 2 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Tropical Depression 01E in the Eastern Pacific has formed this evening. It has a vigorous circulation and will become Tropical Storm Amanda on Wednesday.

Some Gulf of Mexico shower activity \u2014 weak disorganized in the coming days, but could briefly form a circulation or low pressure center. ECMWF 18z shows a mess of convection.

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Ensemble Cyclone Tracks \u2014 weak ~1005 mb range lows, but could be enough to become a depression. This is June 5th (Friday morning)

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Down the road, we are still watching the Gulf of Mexico for low chance of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America that will spawn multiple Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. Maybe one of those crosses in the Gulf \u2014 or some remnants. June 15th (+13 days) only a < 10% chance, which is consistent with climatology \u2014 and more noise than signal.

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Basin Headlines for Tuesday

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Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | GeoColors

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Infrared (Channel 13) colorized \u2014> showers and thunderstorms

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Completely clear Caribbean with only scattered showers associated with a new tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa earlier on Tuesday.

Water Vapor (Mid-Level Ch. 9) - troughs + areas of descending/dry air

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A trough (yellow+orange) from Caribbean into the eastern Atlantic \u2014 closed for business with nary a cloud. Tropical wave in eastern MDR has a nice moisture shield. It would have more potential over warm waters in another few weeks, or further westward.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Not seeing anything organized across the Atlantic including the Gulf and Caribbean. However, into mid-June, surge of moisture and more favorable background conditions with MJO passing through could always help (briefly) spin up something close to home.

NASA GEOS5 (00z) \u2014> African dust plume forecast next 10-days

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Saharan Air Layer and African dust activity will decrease after this plume pushes through the Caribbean into the Gulf \u2014 while mixing/raining out.

Then, rather quiet for early June across the Eastern Atlantic / African coast for dust.

North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days

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3 Tropical Waves \u2014 not developing in the Atlantic, but they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific and have a chance there, too.

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Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures (SST)

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The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.

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My favorite parameter \u2014> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days

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Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2\u201d in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics \u2014> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS

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Eastern Pacific is busy with 2 or perhaps 3 systems. A moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. by mid-June, and we will watch for any tropical cyclone development. Way down the road!

ECMWF Ensemble Spaghetti Next 15-days

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50-ensembles or realizations of the next 15-day forecast of sea level pressure (L\u2019s) tracked \u2026 and then plotted on top of each other.

Notable: handful (~10/50) members in the Gulf of Mexico by Days 12-15 = 20% chance of a TS/Hurricane, which is better odds than climatology for early/mid June.

AIFS-Ensembles (Machine Learning version of ECMWF model at 12z) through 15-days: not as excited about the Gulf, much lower probability (~5%)

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Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season Underway | TD 01E (soon Amanda)

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Names \u2014> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida

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Tropical Storm Amanda will likely reach 50-60 knots \u2014 outside chance of becoming a hurricane.

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Ocean Temperatures are very warm \u2014 plenty for any category of hurricane

HAFS-A with my favorite parameter \u2014 always worth watching.

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HAFS-A Mesoscale Nest \u2014 TD 01E shows puffs of convection for the next 5-days, but on the struggle bus.

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ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Day 6 Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014 interesting twin / elongated vorticity along Mexico + Central America \u2014> 2 named storms for the price of one?

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ECMWF EPS | Next 15-days for Eastern Pacific

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Western Pacific Basin \u2014 Typhoon Season | Tropical Storm Jangmi (06W)

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Jangmi is now extratropical \u2014 passing along coast of Japan

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Global Ocean Temperatures \u2014> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Tropical storms need at least 26\u00b0C SST to form and intensify \u2026 and hurricanes most often become major with 28\u00b0C SST (at least).

There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Ni\u00f1o. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.

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Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what\u2019s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5\u00b0N to 10\u00b0N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we\u2019ll look for areas of disturbed weather \u2014 which means persistent convection \u2014 and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.

The Bermuda High \u2014> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30\u00b0N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.

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Tropical Depression 01E in the Eastern Pacific has formed this evening. It has a vigorous circulation and will become Tropical Storm Amanda on Wednesday.

Some Gulf of Mexico shower activity \u2014 weak disorganized in the coming days, but could briefly form a circulation or low pressure center. ECMWF 18z shows a mess of convection.

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