{ "number": 930, "headline": "May 4, 2026 Monday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Heavy snowfall in Denver contrasts with extreme heat in Central Florida into mid-week", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-05", "published": "2026-05-05T00:56:28.650000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 930: Good Evening! Day 124 of 2026. 26 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Mostly quiet across the Lower 48 with northerly flow out of Canada behind a strong cold front keeping the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast dry and very comfortable. Beautiful weather on Monday for vast majority of the population of the United States.

A moisture plume out of the Eastern Pacific subtropics is crossing into the Southwest and Texas \u2014 good news for additional heavy rainfall in the southern states in coming days.

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Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I.

Headlines for Monday

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Not really a strong storm system but plenty of moisture and cold air combine over Colorado to dump a LOT of snowfall even for early May.

Boulder WFO (NWS Office) is at 13.5\u201d of snowfall for the upcoming event. Denver is pushing up to 5\u201d and the metro may seen widespread 6\u201d-12\u201d with at least 1.0\u201d to 1.5\u201d QPF. The actual amount of snow is dependent upon lower-level temperatures, which should be quite cold in the 20s.

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NWS Snowfall \u2014 next 3-days for Colorado and Denver Metro Zoom

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High Temperatures on Wednesday only in the mid-30s across Denver Metro \u2014> chilly!

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Next 7-day Roller Coaster \u2014 Denver down to 26\u00b0F and into the 70s by Saturday.

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On the flip side \u2014> HOT in Florida by Wed/Thurs with mid-90s maybe 97\u00b0F along Interstate 4 around Orlando. NWS Highs Wed & Thurs:

Another Cold Blast early next week!

Next week: Tuesday yet another Canadian Arctic cold front and \u201cblast\u201d of cool air and subfreezing temperatures across the Great Lakes into New England.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 4 - May 10

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Tough sledding \u2014 more than 6\u00b0F to 10\u00b0F below normal for a 7-day period from Canadian Prairies into Midwest and Great Lakes including Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit.

Very warm: 10\u00b0F above normal across the Pacific Northwest

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 11 - May 16

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Warmth expands across the Western U.S. centered on the Great Basin vs. cooler across Great Lakes and Northeast

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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Moisture plume out of Subtropical Pacific extends eastward through Texas to combine with Gulf of Mexico (open for business) but only south of a stationary front as the Canadian trough wins the battle over the next week!

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 67.2\u00b0F with 192 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014 mild!

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 was only 1.3\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Tuesday Morning

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Some storms along a cold front from Kansas City to St. Louis and along Interstate 80 into Southern Michigan \u2014> only a slight chance these become severe.

Mixed / frozen precipitation + snowfall along polar front extending through Colorado and Wyoming!

HRRR precipitable water next 48-hours:

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HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Tuesday 8 AM ET

Heavier snowfall showing up in Wyoming

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Cyclonic circulation over California = light showers \u2026 definitely welcome!

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednesday 2 PM ET

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Look at that dark blue over Colorado and Denver \u2014 it will be snowing to \u201cbeat the band\u201d on Wednesday!

Weather on Tuesday

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Looks more like late March than first week of May with the snowfall across the Rockies. Otherwise, unsettled along cold front from Dallas to New England.

Weather on Wednesday

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Storms + Heavy Rain from eastern Texas into North Georgia = again, very welcome with only a slight chance of severe storms.

Upper-Level Weather Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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A cool and unsettled pattern continues through mid-May with repeated / persistent troughing centered on Ontario/Quebec \u2014 spinning away and completely unbothered.

The trough / cut-off across the U.S. Southwest = cool for Phoenix + Vegas!

10 day Precipitation Forecast | New Blend of Models v5.0

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. Low Temperatures Tuesday Morning

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Below freezing in the upper-Midwest

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Comfortably cool in the lower 50s and maybe upper-40s into North Florida

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Great Lakes and Midwest still chilly!

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Low of 65\u00b0F in Phoenix and 56\u00b0F in Las Vegas

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High Temperatures Tuesday

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Only 14.5 million at least 90\u00b0F over Texas and Florida \u2026 with 70s in Las Vegas and 80\u00b0F in Phoenix. Amazing.

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84\u00b0F in Washington D.C. and 87\u00b0F in NYC

Phoenix back into the 100s soon enough!

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday mid-day

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Plenty of rainfall for many areas including Southeast, Ohio River Valley and Northeast

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Total Precipitation Next 7-days | Blend of Models

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Snowfall from ECMWF EPS Ensemble Median (15-days)

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Snowfall probability of at least 1-inch into May 19th

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Extended period of \u201cbelow normal\u201d temperatures dips into the Lower 48 east of the Rockies extending back into northwest Canada through first 2-weeks of May.

Much warmer than normal across the Western U.S.

Tropical Update

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

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North Atlantic tropics \u2014 precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise

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Western Pacific shows multiple \u201cwaves\u201d \u2014 you can eyeball a parade of potential storms but maybe 1 will briefly develop or catch fire as the basin is still in La Ni\u00f1a mode and unfavorable for Typhoon development.

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Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014 nothing development \u2014 waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get the party started out here \u2014 which should be an active season with developing Super El Ni\u00f1o.

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Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Mostly quiet across the Lower 48 with northerly flow out of Canada behind a strong cold front keeping the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast dry and very comfortable. Beautiful weather on Monday for vast majority of the population of the United States.

A moisture plume out of the Eastern Pacific subtropics is crossing into the Southwest and Texas \u2014 good news for additional heavy rainfall in the southern states in coming days.

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