{ "number": 928, "headline": "April 29, 2026 Wednesday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "First half of May looks very cool across much of the Lower 48 with plenty of rain", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-04-30", "published": "2026-04-30T01:04:11.778000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 928: Good Evening! Day 119 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I.

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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Northerly flow behind cold front = dry Canadian air almost to the Gulf coast by this weekend

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 61.4\u00b0F with 30s and 40s in the Great Lakes

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 was only -2.8\u00b0F BELOW normal with rain cooled / clouds in Texas keeping temperatures down

This Evening\u2019s Satellite Imagery

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Area of rain and thunderstorms extending along subtropical jet stream from Baja California through Texas and into the Gulf coast / Southeast.

Storm system tracking into the Northeast (no severe storms) just drenching + cool rain.

Lower 48 Weather This Evening | Wednesday surface analysis

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Frontal boundary extends from Texas across the Tennessee River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast separately moist/warm air to the south from cool Canadian continental dry air especially in the Great Lakes.

Convective Outlook into Thursday Morning

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SPC watching an enhanced risk of severe storms in South Central Texas + severe thunderstorms eastward along the Gulf Coast states. Main threat is large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
Convective Watches at 8 PM ET

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Fortunately, not many warnings with any of these watch boxes \u2026 seem to be overdone.

Radar Summary through 8:38 PM ET \u2014> more heavy rain from Louisiana into western Panhandle of Florida pushing E/SE

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HRRR precipitable water next 48-hours:

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The edge of the cold front (dry to north) is very sharp from Texas through the Southeast with some undulation as low pressure systems and waves move along the stationary boundary into this weekend.

HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Thursday Noon ET

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Rain across the Northeast throughout the day on Thursday \u2026 clears NYC by mid-morning.

HRRR Model Forecast Radar Next 18-hours \u2014> Thursday Noon ET

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Rain spreads eastward off the Carolina coast by Noon tomorrow.

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 2 PM ET

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Another massive batch of rain with a Pacific origin batch of moisture and low pressure system builds across Texas on Friday!

Weather on Thursday \u2014 heavy rain in Texas \u2026 stationary frontal boundary remains in place along Gulf coast \u2026 Storm system off New England keeps area cool/damp unsettled.

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Below normal temperatures next 10-days+ | East of Rockies

ECMWF AIFS 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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A cool and unsettled pattern from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Northeast for the next 10-days with significant / persistent troughing connecting to the cooler Canadian Arctic pool of air mainly out of the north (still snow covered ground).

10 day Precipitation Forecast | New Blend of Models v5.0

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Several bouts of rainfall across the Southern U.S. from Texas to Florida \u2014 good news for the next 1-2 weeks as May starts out wet and cool.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Into weekend \u2014 general cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and Northeast taps into cooler Canadian air mass \u2014 with moisture could be come snowfall in higher elevations of New England into the weekend.

A clipper system drops out of Ontario into the Great Lakes Sun/Mon for potential snowfall in the UP of Michigan!

ECMWF 18z | Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Amazing period of well below normal temperatures (10\u00b0F to 20\u00b0F cooler than typical in early May) with flow out of Canada associated with still lingering (but weaker) polar vortex in the troposphere

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

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Still 20% of the Lower 48 area below freezing (7 million population)

High Temperatures Thursday

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Remarkably cool for Plains into Mississippi River Valley and into the Northeast \u2026 only 61 million at least 80\u00b0F

Temperature Anomaly on Thursday for High

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Highs in the 40s and 50s across the Great Lakes into New England.

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Afternoon

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Very welcome \u2014 heavy rainfall for Texas into the Southeast \u2026 just what we need!

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Total Precipitation Next 7-days | Blend of Models

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Snowfall from ECMWF EPS Ensemble Median (15-days)

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Snowfall probability of at least 1-inch into May 14th \u2014> LOL

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Extended period of \u201cbelow normal\u201d temperatures dips into the Lower 48 east of the Rockies extending back into northwest Canada through first 2-weeks of May.

Where\u2019s the heat dome? Along the Pacific Northwest and into California during next 1-2 weeks.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | April 29 - May 5

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 6 - May 12

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April 7: 2026 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Northerly flow behind cold front = dry Canadian air almost to the Gulf coast by this weekend

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