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Hurricane Lee undergoing rapid intensification
After battling wind shear, Lee has hit the gas pedal intensifying to nearly a Major Hurricane this morning (11 AM) with expectation of Category 4 later Thursday an Category 5 on Friday. The maximum intensity is forecast to 140-knots, but based upon what was just seen with Jova over slightly cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific, I\u2019m going to go with 155-knots (T 7.5 Dvorak) for Lee. As of 12 PM ET, the satellite intensity algorithm has peaked at T 6.3. This will go up dramatically has darker black colored convection wraps around eye later today.
Lee will track WNW for the next 5-7 days but slow down east of the Bahamas. Thereafter, a due northward track is anticipated between 65\u00b0W and 70\u00b0W longitude.
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The best way to visualize the uncertainty of Lee\u2019s track after about 5-7 days is to show the minimum SLP of each member plotted on a map and animated. Through 10-days, there is considerable along track variability (speed of movement) and expansion of the solution envelope (cone) encompassing New England and Atlantic Canada.
Why no \u201cout to sea\u201d solution like Franklin? TD 14L \u2014> Margot has entered the chat. Since Margot will be powerful \u2014 perhaps a major hurricane \u2014 there will be a high pressure smooshed in between to block any eastward movement of Lee. Medium range forecasts have considerable errors even without 1 or 2 major hurricanes. This is surely a challenge.
Hurricane Lee has reached 105-mph (90-knots) at 16.4\u00b0N and 50\u00b0W and is moving WNW at a brisk 15 mph. That track direction will continue for the next 5-days according to model guidance and NHC human forecasters, but will slow to a crawl by next Tuesday NHC has Lee reaching about 66\u00b0W, and we\u2019ll keep an eye on the longitude for the turn north.
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Hurricane Lee is forecast to reach major intensity to Category 4 in 12 hours, and continue up to Category 5 (140-knots) at least. Of course, there is no Category 6 hurricane officially, but it would probably be around 160-knots if the Saffir-Simpson scale extrapolated upward.
Complicate forecast in the medium-range with Lee and Margo co-existing. At Day 8, along-track spread for Lee is large, while cross-track spread for Margot dominates.
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I haven\u2019t sorted the individual members, but later at Day 13, we see that New England is within the large envelope of spaghetti solutions for Lee. I would assume there is some interplay between Lee and Margot to make this all work. We\u2019ll be digging into that over the coming days for sure.
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Tropical Depression 14L was designated and will become Margot. It will quickly head to the north but remain over warm waters. This should allow Margot to reach major hurricane status in 4-6 days.
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Hurricane Jova exploded overnight into a Category 5 monster. Satellite intensity algorithms went to T 7.8 consistent with a 155-160 knot storm. NHC went with 140-knots even with KNES at T 7.5. Maybe they\u2019ll clean that up in the best track.
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Interesting that Jova rapidly intensified over rather typical/normal waters of 29\u00b0C to 29.5\u00b0C over the Eastern Pacific. Thinking more about this to put into the context of climate change.
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Tropical Storm 12W (Yun-yeung) is still heading toward Japan, but only minimal impacts.
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After battling wind shear, Lee has hit the gas pedal intensifying to nearly a Major Hurricane this morning (11 AM) with expectation of Category 4 later Thursday an Category 5 on Friday. The maximum intensity is forecast to 140-knots, but based upon what was just seen with Jova over slightly cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific, I\u2019m going to go with 155-knots (T 7.5 Dvorak) for Lee. As of 12 PM ET, the satellite intensity algorithm has peaked at T 6.3. This will go up dramatically has darker black colored convection wraps around eye later today.
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