{ "number": 915, "headline": "April 9, 2026 Thursday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Beautiful weather across much of Lower 48 with significant warming trend into next week", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09T23:02:33.693000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 915: Good Evening! Day 99 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Thank you to new (and renewing) subscribers (free and paid) who support this newsletter and development behind the scenes.

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Golf Masters in Augusta: Perfect Sunny Weather through Weekend becoming hot into the mid-80s and then 90s next week

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Lower 48 Weather into Friday Morning

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Frontal boundary with some showers across the central Plains into the Great Lakes + storm system coming ashore in California w/beneficial moisture

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 2 PM ET

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Southeast remains dry for the Masters

HRRR 18z Precipitable Water Next 48-hours (my favorite parameter)

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Weather on Friday similar story with a weak frontal boundary draped across the middle of the U.S from the Plains into New England w/unsettled weather along it

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 66-hours through Sunday Morning

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Maximum of almost 5-inches of precipitation in the Sierra in California, wow!

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NWS Snowfall Next 66-hours \u2014 through Sunday Morning

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Germany ICON 18z | Forecast 5-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico will increase into next week across Texas into the central Plains and Midwest \u2014 watching for severe weather potential if a surface cyclone can catch fire in the Midwest

ECMWF 12z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 7-days

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Moisture Transport (IVT) next 10-days for reopening of the Gulf of Mexico and southerly flow (moist and warm) by Sun/Mon with more subsequent pulses/bursts of moisture as a strong ridge sets up shop along/off the East Coast = \u201cring of fire\u201d pattern with downright hot weather for the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley by middle of next week.

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Total Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models

Ring of fire pattern with zip/zero rainfall across the Southeast.

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 5:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 66.2\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 5:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 6.7\u00b0F ABOVE normal

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ECMWF AIFS 12z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

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The Hudson Bay Polar Vortex continues to spin for the next 10 days \u2026 with a ridge forming over the Eastern U.S. = significant warming trend, as the western U.S. sees multiple troughs = cooler and unsettled with more mountain snowfall (excellent news)

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Saturday, April 18

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Much hotter into next week with 90s appearing in the Mid-Atlantic \u2026 94\u00b0F DC on Wed

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Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Saturday, April 18

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Low Temperatures Friday

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Only 10.7 million below freezing \u2014 cold across Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic

High Temperatures on Friday

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Major warming trend underway across eastern U.S. with 70s and 80s pushing into the mid-Atlantic \u2026 215 million above 70\u00b0F

ECMWF AIFS 12z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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There\u2019s STILL a -45\u00b0C contour of the polar vortex at 500 mb holding on for dear life in Canada for the next 7-10 days, and drifts toward Greenland. Bizarre!

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

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Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

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EPS 12z Probability of Snowfall At least 3-inches

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Major warm spell on the way \u2026 lasting for 10-12 days

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | April 9 - April 15

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 16 - April 22

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Normally the blog update would be over \u2014 but we have tropics to discuss!

Tropical Update: South West Pacific and North West Pacific

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Tropical Storm Sinlaku (04W) was upgraded this afternoon \u2014 and is well on its way to becoming a powerful Super Typhoon. Cyclone Maila (30P) near Papua New Guinea has fallen apart due to wind shear and very cold upwelling water.

Germany ICON 18z Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) through 5-days shows rapid intensification of Sinlaku (04W) into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tracking WNW.

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HAFS-A (mesoscale hurricane model) for Sinlaku (04W) shows a \u201cbehemoth\u201d developing rapidly and moving near Guam, but uncertainty about the track/course

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HAFS-A 12z goes around Guam to the south, but that\u2019s just one solution out of the spaghetti.

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Sinlaku will be VERY large in size. JTWC has the eye/center going right over Guam at Category 4 intensity but could certaintly be Category 5+ by that point, as there is only warm water, low wind shear, and plenty of time to blow up into a monster.

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Sinlaku will develop as the Northern Hemisphere twin of Maila on the SH side of the equator, and the winds out of the west will burst from Indonesia across the warm pool triggering an equatorial (oceanic) downwelling Kelvin wave \u2014 that will later modulate the ocean\u2019s thermocline depth, heat content, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and currents \u2014> transitioning Central and Eastern Pacific to El Ni\u00f1o.

ECMWF Ensemble Spaghetti 12z through 10-days | Sinlaku (04W)

The cluster of tracks furthest west = most intense (Super Typhoon Category 5) with others more quickly recurving to the north.

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Google Deep Mind FNV3 12z | Highest Skill \u2014 north of Guam

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Maila (30P) | Category 1 | 75-knots \u2014> falling apart quickly.

The inner-core (eye) is disrupted and a rapid weakening process is underway. Cold water was upwelled/mixed up beneath Maila \u2026 even below 16\u00b0C instead of the normal 28\u00b0C+ to fuel a major hurricane. Amazing case study in near-equatorial tropical cyclone induced upwelling \u2014 imagine the biological production / boom in critters in this area in the coming days/weeks.

North Atlantic African Dust | Next 10-days

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Dust over the north Atlantic and Africa \u2014 as any early season tropical waves will be wiped out by dust. We\u2019ll also get a sense of the activity into June by the circulation pattern in the Eastern MDR of the Atlantic, and how dust flows over the ocean.

Tropical Update: Central Pacific \u2014> Kona Low to north of Hawaii

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Into the Central Pacific \u2014 Kona Low and atmospheric river over Hawaii

Intense tropical moisture plume is pulled across the Hawaiian Islands = flooding very likely with downpours

Precipitable Water and Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) next 6-days | GFS 18z

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Total Precipitation Next 7-days \u2014 Tropical western Pacific \u2014> Central Pacific pipeline!

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April 7: 2026 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Golf Masters in Augusta: Perfect Sunny Weather through Weekend becoming hot into the mid-80s and then 90s next week

Frontal boundary with some showers across the central Plains into the Great Lakes + storm system coming ashore in California w/beneficial moisture

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