{ "number": 911, "headline": "April 3, 2026 Friday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Two powerful tropical cyclones in Southwest Pacific forming", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-04-04", "published": "2026-04-04T00:42:22.645000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 911: Good Evening! Day 93 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber (April Coupon) \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Thank you to new (and renewing) subscribers in March (free and paid) who support this newsletter and development behind the scenes.

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Tropical Updates are back! South West Pacific

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After several months of prolonged winter weather, we can look at the tropics for extreme weather that may eventually affect us in the months ahead: just south of the Equator in the Western Pacific near Papua New Guinea and Fiji: Invest 90P and Invest 91P. NOAA\u2019s hurricane model (HAFS-A) also has a Northern Hemisphere circulation that may develop itself into a tropical storm later next week.

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Invest 90P is just east of Papua New Guinea in an area of very warm and deep ocean heat content \u2014 some of the warmest on Earth. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential or \u201churricane fuel\u201d has the \u201cfully loaded\u201d Western Pacific warm pool ready for discharge.

La Ni\u00f1a is actually a heat storage mechanism for the global tropics in the Western Pacific and El Ni\u00f1o is a heat discharge.

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Looking at the lower atmosphere wind speeds (850 hPa) we can see westerly winds along the Equator in between the two / twin tropical systems. We\u2019ll see in the coming weeks of this westerly wind burst can trigger an equatorial Kelvin Wave to enhance / trigger El Ni\u00f1o in summer \u2014 perhaps a \u201cSuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o that would significantly suppress Atlantic Hurricane Season activity. More on that in the coming days.

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Invest 90P \u2014 Nest domain from HAFS-A: minimum pressure around 940 hPa = Category 4 \u2014 maybe we will see Category 5 (?). TC formation in the next 24-hours!

The other system Invest 91P does not have a HAFS-A nest quite yet.

The storms will both stick around the tropics for the next many days e.g. 90-hours forecast from ECMWF 18z (next Tuesday 12z)

Spring Storm System

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Weather/Fronts Today into Saturday morning

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Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (tornadoes) in Iowa and Illinois for next several hours

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HRRR 22z Radar Simulation next 18-hours into Saturday Noon ET

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Sunday 2 PM ET

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Weather on Saturday into Sunday Morning

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HRRR 18z Precipitable Water Next 48-hours (my favorite parameter)

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ECMWF 18z | Forecast model 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Storm system quickly tracks into Canada \u2026 and sweeps a sharp cold front through the Eastern U.S. but it hangs up before reaching Florida.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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  1. Only one major storm system left \u2014 today into Saturday with remaining showers along the cold front weakening for Easter Sunday

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 59.7\u00b0F with only 202.5 million population above 70\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 2.6\u00b0F ABOVE normal

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Fairbanks, Alaska has finally made it above freezing for the first day since October 31, 2025 \u2014 not kidding! Temperatures in the mid-30s today.

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Model Predictions | ECMWF AIFS 18z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

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The Hudson Bay / Canadian polar vortex is back with reinforcement / help from Siberia via the North Pole. Impressive intensity / but shrinking size of the PV for next 10-days.

North America Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Sunday, April 12

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Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Sunday, April 12

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 8-Days

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Blend of Models | 8-Days Precipitation Total

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Morning

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Sunday Morning

Low Temperatures Saturday

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Only 22 million below freezing but 37% of real estate (across Rockies and Midwest)

High Temperatures on Saturday

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Hot in the 80s for 158 million+

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High Temperatures on Easter Sunday

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Cold front sweeps through \u2014 significant cool down but still mild with sunshine!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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There\u2019s a -45\u00b0C contour of the polar vortex at 500 mb holding on for dear life in Canada!

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

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Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Europe temperature anomaly next 10-days

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Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | April 3 - April 9

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 10 - April 16

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Significant warmth in week 2 with 10\u00b0F to 12\u00b0F above normal east of the Mississippi!

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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After several months of prolonged winter weather, we can look at the tropics for extreme weather that may eventually affect us in the months ahead: just south of the Equator in the Western Pacific near Papua New Guinea and Fiji: Invest 90P and Invest 91P. NOAA\u2019s hurricane model (HAFS-A) also has a Northern Hemisphere circulation that may develop itself into a tropical storm later next week.

Invest 90P is just east of Papua New Guinea in an area of very warm and deep ocean heat content \u2014 some of the warmest on Earth. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential or \u201churricane fuel\u201d has the \u201cfully loaded\u201d Western Pacific warm pool ready for discharge.

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