{ "number": 907, "headline": "March 30, 2026 Monday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Eastern U.S. begins a wetter period but snowfall across Midwest and Great Lakes will return", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-30", "published": "2026-03-30T15:20:41.472000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 907: Good Morning! Day 89 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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Monday Analysis | NOAA GFS Model

A look \u201ccurrent analysis\u201d or \u201cmonitoring the situation\u201d from the same model output used to generate the forecast animations. Precipitable Water is my favorite parameter: measure of the total moisture in the atmospheric column and nicely highlights polar air, frontal boundaries, and tropical plumes or atmospheric rivers.

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Return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico has brought moisture into the southern Great Lakes + much warmer, too.

Temperature Anomaly \u2014 still very cold over much of Canada especially in Quebec with the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d still strongly in control. Much above normal temperatures extend from the west coast into the Ohio River Valley.

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Dynamic Tropopause (my second favorite map) also highlights the air masses at upper-levels near the jet stream e.g. polar (purple + white fuzzball), and tropical (red and black) colors on the map

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The coldest anomaly on the tropopause corresponds to continued very strong / anomalous troughing over Quebec and Northeast Canada extending around Greenland. This is the tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d that has been driving the now extended winter weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The 500 mb height anomaly map also shows the ridging over the entire Lower 48.

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500 mb Temperature \u2014 coldest at mid-levels still over all of Canada. I\u2019m amazed to see almost -52\u00b0C still just outside the Arctic at 55\u00b0 to 60\u00b0N latitude just east of Hudson Bay for March 30th!

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Finally, the Jet Stream (250 mb wind speed)

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The jet stream splits once it reaches the U.S. West Coast and the ridge firmly in charge. A warm pattern for the eastern U.S. in the coming days.

Model Predictions | ECMWF AIFS 06z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

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The \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anomaly over Quebec shifts eastward \u2014 dislodged by the ridge over the Lower 48 to the south. It heads around Greenland and pushes into north Atlantic closer to Europe \u2014> Brief pattern shift to see the Eastern U.S. more under control of a dome of high pressure \u2014 not exactly a \u201cheat dome\u201d ridge like we saw in the Southwest for more than week, but much warmer and wetter with southerly flow opening up the Gulf of Mexico.

Next several days: A trough dips out of the Gulf of Alaska, tracks across the northern Rockies into the Plains, and Great Lakes. This vorticity will power a surface cyclone and severe weather outbreak by Sunday across the central U.S.

Quick look at Europe\u2019s Upper-Level Weather Pattern

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Very strong series of \u201ccut-off lows\u201d at mid-levels due to Rossby wave \u201ctrough thinning\u201d dip into Libya and form a closed lower than 540 dm contour over the North Africa coast of the Mediterranean. This cold-core, polar vortex origin PV anomaly will \u201cincubate\u201d a surface low pressure (cyclone) of the relative warmer waters and drive a potential storm systems e.g. Medicane.

European Next 6-days | Precipitation Type and Intensity (ECMWF 06z)

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Unsettled weather across Italy and Greece \u2014 with one or two (?) surface cyclones in the 990s mb tracking out of Africa northward.

Total Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

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United States Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Much above normal temperatures > 20\u00b0F continue for next 6-8 days into the eastern U.S. including the big cities. Then, watching a strong cold front and storm system gathers across the Midwest and Great Lakes with snowfall on the backside and severe weather in the warm sector into the weekend.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Tuesday. April 7

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Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Tuesday, April 7

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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More winter \u2014 at least for another week across the Midwest.

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

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Boatloads of rainfall along and east of the Mississippi River. 10-day totals of 2 to 4-inches would be MOST welcome.

Weather/Fronts today into Tuesday morning: Slight chance of severe weather in eastern Iowa \u2026 maybe into Chicagoland.

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Storms will form in Iowa along warm front boundary and move due east into overnight hours. Additional storms fire in Michigan past midnight.

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HRRR 12z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednesday 8 AM ET

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A lot of moisture into California and the Southwest \u2014 turns to snow in the Rockies. Very welcome pattern shift from the \u201cheat dome\u201d that decimate snow pack.

Weather on Tuesday \u2026 warm front boundary through Great Lakes and northern New England

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Morning

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Thursday Morning

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:45 AM ET

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Lower 48 average was 52.2\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:45 AM ET

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Lower 48 was 10.1\u00b0F ABOVE normal

High Temperatures Today | Monday

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239 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014 and 107 million at least 80\u00b0F = very warm / hot

Temperature Anomaly Today | Monday High

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Low Temperatures Tuesday

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Only 6 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Even warmer for the eastern half of the U.S. except for the Mideast and Great Lakes south of the warm frontal boundary. 255 million at least 70\u00b0F and 127 million at least 80\u00b0F

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Temperature Anomaly | Tuesday Highs

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ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Two major storm systems more typical of Spring severe weather season \u2014 but still exceptionally cold air from the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d in Canada available for potential blizzard conditions around the surface cyclones.

  1. Thursday and Friday storm forms in plains and tracks into Great Lakes

  2. More powerful low follows into the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday with severe weather along cold front and in the warm sector

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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End of the loop shows the short-wave mid-level trough arriving into the Plains to power the surface cyclone and sharp cold front. Sunday 2 AM ET:

Moisture Transport | Next 12-days | ECMWF 00z

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Multiple Gulf moisture surges \u2014> potential for heavy rain and severe weather with at least 3 storm systems.

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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The -50\u00b0C super-cold pool pushes away from Canada, and we see a downtick in the overall cold pool strength over Canada at mid-levels into second week of April, transitioning into Spring (maybe?)

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [00z] | Next 15-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

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Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (06z) next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean

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Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 30 - April 5

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 6 - April 12

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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A look \u201ccurrent analysis\u201d or \u201cmonitoring the situation\u201d from the same model output used to generate the forecast animations. Precipitable Water is my favorite parameter: measure of the total moisture in the atmospheric column and nicely highlights polar air, frontal boundaries, and tropical plumes or atmospheric rivers.

Return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico has brought moisture into the southern Great Lakes + much warmer, too.

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