{ "number": 905, "headline": "March 26, 2026 Thursday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Canada will not give up on winter just yet as cold returns from Arctic into the Great Lakes", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-27", "published": "2026-03-27T01:34:11.844000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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ECMWF AIFS 18z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

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The Canadian Arctic polar vortex has shifted eastward over Quebec and will wobble off into the Atlantic around Greenland. Hopefully that\u2019s the end of the road for winter in North America!

The heat dome \u201cridge\u201d also shifts east and builds strongly into next week. A trough and much cooler weather arrives into the Western U.S. by mid-week = major pattern shift to dislodge the \u201cblocks\u201d and get the pattern progressing again into April.

This is post number 905: Good Evening! Day 85 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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Iraq and Middle East cut-off low pressure system

Very impressive surface cyclone similar to a tropical storm in appearance over Iraq at 993 mb with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

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Analysis maps of the middle-east (MSLP, wind gusts, precipitable water)

Note the tropical moisture \u201catmospheric river\u201d plume (1.5\u201d to 2\u201d+) extending from Sudan across Arabian Peninsula into Iran

Upper-Level Weather Pattern Across Europe into the Middle East

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Two strong blocking highs are stuck in place \u2026 with \u201ctrough thinning\u201d or Rossby \u201cwave breaking\u201d in between bringing higher PV air southward to combine with the moisture = instability and showers/storms. These \u201cbowling balls\u201d travel along the 30\u00b0N latitude and trigger all sorts of extreme weather conditions around the globe.

Cut-offs (n=2) dip into North Africa and form a powerful \u201cMedicane\u201d

Precipitation Type and Intensity next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Another weaker storm system arrives into Turkey by the weekend but Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia dry out. Rain + Snow next 6-days:

European Weather Next 6-days | Precipitation Type and Intensity (ECMWF 18z)

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ECMWF 18z has a very powerful hurricane like system in the 5-6 day range forming from a surface cyclone over Libya. Bizarre \u2014 would become a powerful \u201cMedicane\u201d

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Total Snowfall & Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

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United States Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Impressive early Spring cold front delivers a \u201cblast\u201d of cold air to the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2026 hopefully the end of the road for \u201cwinter\u201d

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Saturday, April 4

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Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Saturday, April 4

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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More Western U.S. snowfall in the Blend of Models ensembles. Good news as more typical cooler air dips out of Alaska.

Blend of Models | 7-Days Precipitation Total

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This evening: Ongoing severe weather along frontal boundary | Radar through 9:04 PM ET.

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Two watch boxes extending from St. Louis to Pittsburgh \u2014 risk of tornadoes over Ohio.

Weather/Fronts this Evening into Friday morning

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HRRR Next 18-hours \u2014> Friday 1 PM ET

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday, 2 PM ET

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The rain and storms quickly lose their punch as the low pressure system sags southeastward along the frontal boundary

Weather on Friday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Sunday Evening

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 61.2\u00b0F with 187 million at least 70\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 is 7.9\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures Friday

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Back up to 58 million below freezing

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High Temperatures on Friday

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Still quite hot with 118 million at least 80\u00b0F but the area is reduced significantly to just 21% of the Lower 48 \u2026 much colder air moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast

Temperature Anomaly | Warm Across Western 1/4 of the Lower 48 and Southeast

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Moisture Transport | Next 12-days | ECMWF 12z

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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The tropospheric polar vortex remains \u201ccold\u201d and spinning strongly through end of March. The remarkable cold pool of -45\u00b0C to -51\u00b0C temperature air at 500 mb finally weakens in 10-days.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [12z] | Next 15-days

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Western U.S. snowfall forecasts in the ensemble continue to dial upward

Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

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Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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The most intense portion of the Canadian cold pool with the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d will give up into first week of April.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 26 - April 1

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 2 - April 8

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

ECMWF AIFS 18z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

The Canadian Arctic polar vortex has shifted eastward over Quebec and will wobble off into the Atlantic around Greenland. Hopefully that\u2019s the end of the road for winter in North America!

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