{ "number": 902, "headline": "March 23, 2026 Monday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Middle East to see heavy storms with extreme weather pattern", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-24", "published": "2026-03-24T01:42:41.231000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Severe weather upcoming for the Middle East with a swirling \u201ccut-off\u201d low in mid-levels translating to the surface with a trackable low pressure system over Iraq into the mid-980s central pressure. Plenty of moisture out of the Mediterranean and Red Sea will provide fuel for thunderstorms, some of which could have massive hail with the mid-level cooler air, and wicked ascent profiles over the desert landscape.

\"\"

Total rainfall amounts will be exceptional across the entire Arabian Peninsula. But check out Iraq into Iran, and down through the Persian Gulf. That red is at least 2\u201d of rainfall with embedded areas of 6\u201d to 10\u201d possible in heaviest downpours.

Major risk for flooding \u2014 perhaps catastrophic and historic in nature!

\"\"

This is post number 902: Good Evening! Day 82 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. [Spring 2026 Coupon Offer]

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Upper-Level Weather Pattern Across Europe into the Middle East

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Two strong blocking highs are stuck in place \u2026 with \u201ctrough thinning\u201d or Rossby \u201cwave breaking\u201d in between bringing higher PV air southward to combine with the moisture = instability and showers/storms. These \u201cbowling balls\u201d travel along the 30\u00b0N latitude and trigger all sorts of extreme weather conditions around the globe.

European Weather Next 6-days \u2014> two major cut-off low events

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Total Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

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United States

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Wednesday, April 1

\"\"

A bit cooler this weekend with a cold front across the Great Lakes and Northeast but then recovery into April as Spring battles back the Canadian cold pool

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Wednesday, April 1

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

\"\"

Running out of winter across the Lower 48 quickly \u2026 but some snowfall possible across the California Sierra and Rockies into April.

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednedsay 2 PM ET

\"\"

Light snowfall with passing Clipper Systems along northern tier storm track

Weather on Tuesday

\"\"

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Thursday Evening

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 average was 58.3\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 is 5.6\u00b0F ABOVE normal

RTMA 24-Hour Temperature Change | 8:15 PM ET

\"\"

Cold front dropping temperatures upwards of 40\u00b0F along Ohio River Valley

Low Temperatures Tuesday

\"\"

Over 100 million below freezing again!

High Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

HOT across the Western U.S. and Texas into Denver \u2026

Temperature Anomaly | 20-25\u00b0F above normal

\"\"

High Temperatures on Wednesday

\"\"

Warmth expands eastward into the Midwest \u2026 with nearly 70\u00b0F in Chicago and Minneapolis. Temperature anomaly maximum of 30\u00b0F to 35\u00b0F in the central Plains where temperatures will climb into the mid-90s (Kansas)

\"\"

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

\"\"

Atmospheric river into the Pacific Northwest \u2026 and perhaps into California.

Cold/dry Canadian Arctic still locked into winter mode \u2014 and that slides through the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend

Moisture Transport | Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z

\"\"

Gulf of Mexico returns to action by middle of next week!

Phoenix next 10-days \u2026 the 100s will be done for a while by this weekend

\"\"

Chicago next 10-Days

\"\"

Washington D.C. next 10-days

\"\"

Atlanta next 10-days

\"\"

Denver next 10-days

\"\"

Boston next 10-days

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 12-days

\"\"

The tropospheric polar vortex remains \u201ccold\u201d and spinning strongly through end of March. Still a pool of -40\u00b0C to -48\u00b0C temperature air at 500 mb \u2014 but note how everything shifts 1/2 wavelength to the east \u2026 trough across the West vs. ridging across East \u2014 allowed by the Canadian Arctic cold pool moving toward Greenland.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [12z] | Next 15-days

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Western U.S. snowfall may not be \u201cdone with\u201d after all \u2026 we\u2019ll see if April snow showers can return once the \u201cheat dome\u201d breaks down. 90s to snow would be fun in Colorado!

Probability of at least 1\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

\"\"

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

\"\"

The Canadian cold pool with the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d looks to finally give up into first week of April! The heat dome across the Lower 48 expands eastward into Days 6-10, and the west shifts neutral to cooler than normal.

AIFS next 12-days of Height Anomaly shows the persistence of the western ridge for next 10-days \u2026 with the Canadian / Hudson Bay polar vortex continuing to spin. Pattern change with a western U.S. trough by April 1st pushing the heat dome away.

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 23 - March 27

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20\u00b0F to 24\u00b0F maximum temperature anomaly for 5-days across the Western U.S.

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 28 - April 1

\"\"

Much above normal warmth continues through end of March across Western U.S.

Zooming out to all of North America shows a cold pool pushed eastward over Quebec.

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | April 2 - April 6

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Eastern U.S. warmth for the first week of April.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Severe weather upcoming for the Middle East with a swirling \u201ccut-off\u201d low in mid-levels translating to the surface with a trackable low pressure system over Iraq into the mid-980s central pressure. Plenty of moisture out of the Mediterranean and Red Sea will provide fuel for thunderstorms, some of which could have massive hail with the mid-level cooler air, and wicked ascent profiles over the desert landscape.

Total rainfall amounts will be exceptional across the entire Arabian Peninsula. But check out Iraq into Iran, and down through the Persian Gulf. That red is at least 2\u201d of rainfall with embedded areas of 6\u201d to 10\u201d possible in heaviest downpours.

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