{ "number": 892, "headline": "March 10, 2026 Tuesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Evening severe weather event from Texas to Michigan", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-11", "published": "2026-03-11T01:17:06.946000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Active convective watches (tornado and severe thunderstorm) at 8:46 PM ET

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Convection blowing up along cold front boundary stretching from Texas to Illinois where the warm front / nose in northern Illinois has seen supercells with massive hail and observed tornadoes. I\u2019m only providing an overview and hopefully everyone in the path of these dangerous storms is dialed into their local television station or monitoring the radar.

This is post number 892: Good Evening! Day 69 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into Year 3. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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Oklahoma City Radar to 7:54 PM CT

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Northern Illinois into Indiana \u2014 massive supercells especially one through Kankakee

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Heavy snowfall across northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with severe thunderstorms from Holland to Grand Rapids.

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Snowfall from the Blend of Models for the next 10-days is incredible with upwards of 4-feet expected in the UP of Michigan and along a huge swath into Ontario and Quebec.

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

3 Major Storm Systems

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  1. Ongoing storm with severe weather develops a strong surface low in Michigan and Canada into Wednesday and Thursday. The trailing cold front loses its punch with only slight severe weather chances on Wednesday.

  2. Potent Alberta Clipper System scoots from Midwest into Great Lakes on Friday

  3. Finally, a massive blizzard Sunday into Monday for Midwest and Great Lakes

Western U.S. \u2014 atmospheric river onslaught into Pacific Northwest

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Hawaii Kona Low \u2014 incredible rainfall (10\u201d to 30\u201d+) from tropical atmospheric river feeds

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Precipitable Water Across Central Pacific \u2014 Whoa \u2014 huge flow with 2 channels of 2\u201d+ PWAT atmospheric rivers

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Hard to nail down exact rainfall amounts \u2026 but potential for 10\u201d to 20\u201d likely for Hawaiian Islands next 6-10 days

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Daily High Temperatures to Thursday March 19th

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Heat Dome forms across the Western U.S. with temperatures in the Southwest pushing well into the 100s including Phoenix by next Tuesday.

The polar vortex enabled trough across the Eastern U.S. will drop freezing temperatures for daytime highs across the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week.

Lows to Next Thursday March 19th

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Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall + snowfall for next 10-days

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Arctic cold pool is mostly held back into Canada but the upcoming storm system Thu/Fri does sample that drier/cooler air mass.

Massive blizzard on Sunday / Monday has full weight of polar vortex (dry, cold) air behind it

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

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Weather into Wednesday morning \u2014 severe weather underway from Texas to Oklahoma and northwards into Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana

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Moderate risk (4/5) from Peoria, Illinois into Indian

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Strongest tornado threat + chance in that moderate zone

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HRRR 22z \u2014> Wednesday 12 PM ET

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Weather on Wednesday into early Morning Thursday

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Slight Risk of Severe Storms from Houston to Washington D.C.

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 2 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 is 7.8\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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29 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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208 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 100 million at least 80\u00b0F

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90s in Florida and the Carolinas possible

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday Afternoon

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday Afternoon

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 12-days

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The entire PV descends / stretches southward \u2026 and plenty cold with the centroid at -45\u00b0C at 500 mb \u2026 with a lobe into Great Lakes / Northeast at Days 5-7. Remarkably strong PV / Arctic blast for mid-March!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 12-days

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Major heat dome across the Western U.S. vs. trough dipping out of Canada east of the Rockies = very cold

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 10-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 10-days

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Probability of at least 12\u201d of Snowfall Next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 10 - March 14

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 15 - March 19

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 20 - March 24

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Active convective watches (tornado and severe thunderstorm) at 8:46 PM ET

Convection blowing up along cold front boundary stretching from Texas to Illinois where the warm front / nose in northern Illinois has seen supercells with massive hail and observed tornadoes. I\u2019m only providing an overview and hopefully everyone in the path of these dangerous storms is dialed into their local television station or monitoring the radar.

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