{ "number": 889, "headline": "March 5, 2026 Thursday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Strong El Ni\u00f1o forecast to form this summer suppressing hurricane activity", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-06", "published": "2026-03-06T01:37:30.916000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Busy weather pattern \u2026 helps to have moisture and warmth coming out of the subtropics rather than dealing with the frigid and dry polar vortex. Even with the warming trend across the Eastern U.S. there is still plenty of cold air to the north in Canada that gets dragged behind storm systems to generate wintry weather. The western U.S. will return to late winter conditions with moisture and cold air to help with the end of the water year.

This is post number 889: Good Evening! Day 64 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into Year 3. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Day for March to September 2026: very strong El Ni\u00f1o!

However, this is March and there is some measure of uncertainty crossing the \u201cspring predictability barrier\u201d but members between 1.5\u00b0C to 3.0\u00b0C suggest a \u201cstrong event\u201d

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SST Anomaly for month of September shows the canonical El Ni\u00f1o warmth along the equator. The North Atlantic has a cool blob while the rest of the Atlantic tropics are near to slightly above normal.

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For the months of hurricane season through end of September, the model shows 20% below the climate mean for Accumulated Cyclone Energy. We\u2019ll watch the next couple months\u2019 (April / May) forecasts when they land, but history usually (almost always) means a tepid/quiet Atlantic hurricane season with strong El Ni\u00f1o. However, it\u2019s a bit suspicious that the Pacific is near normal when it should be going gangbusters.

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The ITCZ is shifted northward into the summer hemisphere with El Ni\u00f1o enhanced convection for September but very dry around the Philippines and the western Pacific warm pool, which is weird! The Atlantic tropics are much drier than normal consistent with quiet season \u2014 at least thru end of September.

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And, higher that normal surface pressure in the Atlantic = more ridging/less storms

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Daily High Temperatures to Saturday March 14th

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Spring like warmth continues into next week with only minor/brief interludes from passing cold fronts and storm systems through next weekend \u2026 with the Arctic blast just beyond this horizon.

Lows for the next 8-days \u2014 through Saturday morning the 14th.

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Friday\u2019s Record Highs \u2014 70\u00b0 Chicago and 82\u00b0F Nashville!

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Northeast not participating in the warmth right now.

Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall for next 8-days+

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation. That cool air dips into the Pacific Northwest into middle of next week.

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Interesting cut-off low spins off the coast of Baja California next week \u2014 and now it crosses northern Mexico into Texas to form a surface low pressure system. That\u2019s got my attention.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

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Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward \u2014 \u201cring of fire\u201d around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Weather into Friday morning \u2014 Slight to Enhanced chance of severe weather in the Texas panhandle into OK/KS with ongoing convection

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Day 1 Convective Outlook through 7 AM Friday

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Tornado Watch 13

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Radar at 7:30 PM CT

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Weather On Friday: Larger area of thunderstorms with low pressure system with mixed precip on the backside in Minnesota.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook:

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Enhanced risk for KC, Tulsa, and Springfield, Missouri

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 1 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 is a whopping 7.9\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Friday

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Only 23 million below freezing mainly New England

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High Temperatures on Friday

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179 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 81 million at least 80\u00b0F

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Except the Northeast is stuck in much colder/wedge like conditions with only 30s in Boston and 20s in Caribou!

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Highs on Saturday

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171 million at least 70\u00b0F and 57 million > 80\u00b0F

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Afternoon

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Sunday afternoon

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Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Still watching the middle of next week for the entire Polar Vortex shifts/stretches southward closer to the Canadian border with potential for \u201clobes\u201d of cold Arctic air \u2014 even for mid-March \u2014 to sweep through the Lower 48.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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Coldest Days are 11 to 15 east of the Rockies

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 5 - March 9

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 10 - March 14

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 15 - March 19

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Busy weather pattern \u2026 helps to have moisture and warmth coming out of the subtropics rather than dealing with the frigid and dry polar vortex. Even with the warming trend across the Eastern U.S. there is still plenty of cold air to the north in Canada that gets dragged behind storm systems to generate wintry weather. The western U.S. will return to late winter conditions with moisture and cold air to help with the end of the water year.

ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Day for March to September 2026: very strong El Ni\u00f1o!

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