{ "number": 887, "headline": "March 3, 2026 Tuesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "After week of Spring warmth return to winter into mid-March as polar vortex stretches into Lower 48", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-04", "published": "2026-03-04T01:33:46.917000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Daily High Temperatures to Thursday, March 12th.

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Enjoy the spring time warmth, maybe even \u201cheat\u201d with temperatures pushing into the 80s for > 100 million Americans over next 7-10 days. The next major risk of cold air will not be until middle of next week.

Lows for the next 8-days \u2014 through Thursday morning the 12th.

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Very mild eastern U.S. for next 7-days and then we will see (hopefully) winter\u2019s final Arctic blast move through the Lower 48 for middle March.

This is post number 887: Good Morning! Day 62 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation.

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Not much update from yesterday \u2026 impressive surge of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico moves across Eastern U.S. well into the Great Lakes.

An impressive atmospheric river impacts Alaskan panhandle and western Canada = heavy moisture and warmer air.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

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Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward \u2014 \u201cring of fire\u201d around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Pacific moisture also introduced to the upper-level pattern for southern Canada.

Weather into Wednesday morning \u2014 still some winter leftover before the warm front arrives with mix/slop in New England plus heavy snow in Maine. Plenty of rainfall along the frontal boundary from St. Louis into Ohio River Valley.

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HRRR Simulated Radar into Wednesday morning 11 AM ET

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Weather On Wednesday

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Slight chance of severe weather from Dallas to St. Louis on Wednesday

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 1 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis |6:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 is a whopping 9.9\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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Only 51 million below freezing \u2014 Great Lakes into New England, not unusual.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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140 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 51 million at least 80\u00b0F with continued major improvement in Great Lakes and Northeast pushing into the 50s. 70s surge across the Ohio River

Highs on Thursday

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High Temperatures on Friday \u2014 Look Ahead to Major Spring Warmth

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Washington D.C. Next 7-days

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New York City Next 7-days

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Boston Next 7-days

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Atlanta Next 7-days

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Chicago Next 7-days

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday Evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday evening

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Heavy rain continues along the northern edge of the \u201cring of fire\u201d ridge into the Great Lakes. A significant storm system sweeps a cold front through this weekend.

European Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

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Total Precipitation across Europe next 6-days

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Middle East Precipitation and Type next 6-days

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Total Precipitation Next 6-days

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Middle of next week, the entire Polar Vortex shifts southward closer to the Canadian border with potential for \u201clobes\u201d of cold Arctic air \u2014 even for mid-March \u2014 to sweep through the Lower 48.

Days 8 to 15 | 850-mb Temperature Anomaly

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This would be a very significant \u201cArctic blast\u201d for March 11-18 (Days 8-15)

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 3 - March 7

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 8 - March 12

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 13 - March 17

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

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Enjoy the spring time warmth, maybe even \u201cheat\u201d with temperatures pushing into the 80s for > 100 million Americans over next 7-10 days. The next major risk of cold air will not be until middle of next week.

Lows for the next 8-days \u2014 through Thursday morning the 12th.

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