{ "number": 884, "headline": "February 26, 2026 Thursday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Spring like warmth arrives next week across the Eastern U.S.", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-27", "published": "2026-02-27T02:16:35.964000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Average temperature anomaly for Week 2: March 6-12th

\"\"

The Eastern U.S. warms significantly into second week of March with well-above normal temperatures. The \u201cpolar vortex\u201d retreats into Arctic Canada and Alaska. Still watching a (major) \u201csudden stratospheric warming\u201d (SSW) event to occur over next 10-days, and any near-surface or Lower 48 fallout / potential cold spell would be middle-March and onward, but until then, very warm.

\"\"

20\u00b0F above normal centered on Pittsburgh \u2014 and everyone east of the Mississippi at least 10\u00b0F above normal.

This is post number 884: Good Evening! Day 57 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Coupon code for upgrade to annual subscriptions.

Subscribe now

We still have one more Arctic blast to go \u2014 and it will be intense but brief, thankfully.

Temperature anomaly for the next 6-days shows the mega-TPV near Greenland combining with Alaska/NW Arctic Canada cold pool and descending into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Note that the cold lingers into Tuesday with a wedge in the Southeast U.S. (Atlanta) and the Mid-Atlantic.

\"\"

The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday in the Northeast with ECMWF 18z showing minimum of 4\u00b0F or 5\u00b0F in New York City. These cold numbers still haven\u2019t gone away in the flagship Europe model. Monday Lows:

\"\"

Tuesday Lows:

\"\"

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) to show moisture or lack of it across North America

\"\"

The white is exceptionally dry (little actual moisture \u2014 but relative humidity can be high because it is so cold) \u2026 with Canada almost entirely enveloped in brutal winter Arctic \u201cpolar vortex\u201d cold air.

Pattern Shifts Next Week! The flow comes out of the south \u2026 and we see the Gulf of Mexico activated and open for business heading through the first week of March. This means much, much warmer and also wetter \u2014 good news for any drought concerns heading into to planting season. Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport:

\"\"

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours

Rain continues across the Southeast into Florida but probably not much for far Southern Florida in the Everglades.

Light snowfall across the northern tier from Pacific moisture \u2026 not substantial.

\"\"

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 is 9.3\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Friday

\"\"

120 million below freezing

\"\"
\"\"

High Temperatures on Friday

\"\"

135 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 70 million at least 80\u00b0F but still in the 40s across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday evening

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday evening

\"\"

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Not seeing a major winter storm forming or much precipitation (snowfall) into early next week, but still need to watch the frontal boundary that is draped along the Ohio River Valley for any low pressure development in the Northeast. Nothing imminent \u2014 but light accumulations in the 2\u201d to 4\u201d range maximum, so far.

Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

\"\"

Total Snowfall Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

\"\"

Last 90 days Precipitation Deficit | Winter has been dry over Eastern U.S.

\"\"

Huge rainfall totals on the way \u2014 centered on Missouri.

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

Significant Precipitation / Rainfall from Weather Pattern Shift | Next 10-days

\"\"

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 10-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

\"\"

Spring like warmth into the second week of March!

New York City | Next 15-days from ECMWF 12z \u2014 60s and 70s

\"\"

Chicago | Next 15-days from ECMWF 12z

\"\"

Washington D.C. next 15-days \u2014 on major upswing into March 6th w/70s maybe 80\u00b0F

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 26 - March 2

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 3 - March 7

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 8 - March 12

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

The Eastern U.S. warms significantly into second week of March with well-above normal temperatures. The \u201cpolar vortex\u201d retreats into Arctic Canada and Alaska. Still watching a (major) \u201csudden stratospheric warming\u201d (SSW) event to occur over next 10-days, and any near-surface or Lower 48 fallout / potential cold spell would be middle-March and onward, but until then, very warm.

20\u00b0F above normal centered on Pittsburgh \u2014 and everyone east of the Mississippi at least 10\u00b0F above normal.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-26-2026-thursday-winter" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "189316281.february-26-2026-thursday-winter", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-26-2026-thursday-winter", "slug": "february-26-2026-thursday-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/884/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/884/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "365ebdf49e6398773482fb0b56cb93d60563afab2bcc8b1b6503f3e176d4df10" }