{ "number": 883, "headline": "February 25, 2026 Wednesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "One more week of harsh winter cold then we turn the corner to more Spring like warmth", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-26", "published": "2026-02-26T01:15:14.588000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Average temperature anomaly for Week 2: March 5-11th

Relief is in sight from the harsh winter weather as the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d will be locked up over Arctic Canada and Alaska into mid-March. We\u2019ll be watching a (major) \u201csudden stratospheric warming\u201d (SSW) event to occur over next 10-days, and any near-surface or Lower 48 fallout / potential cold spell would be middle-March and onward.

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This is post number 883: Good Evening! Day 56 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Coupon code for upgrade to annual subscriptions.

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One more Arctic blast to go \u2014 and it will be exceptionally intense but brief, thankfully. Temperature anomaly for the next 6-days shows the mega-TPV near Greenland combining with Alaska/NW Arctic Canada cold pool and descending into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Note that the cold lingers into Tuesday with the wedge in the Southeast U.S. (Atlanta) and the Mid-Atlantic.

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The coldest morning will be Monday in the Northeast with ECMWF 18z showing minimum of 1\u00b0F in New York City \u2014 a March monthly record low, and coldest/latest since 1\u00b0F on February 25, 1914.

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Temperatures will be 25\u00b0F to 40\u00b0F below normal at 7 AM ET on Monday morning across the Northeast from Toronto to Boston and NYC.

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) to show moisture or lack of it across North America

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The white is exceptionally dry (little actual moisture \u2014 but relative humidity can be high because it is so cold) \u2026 with Canada almost entirely enveloped in brutal winter Arctic \u201cpolar vortex\u201d cold air.

Pattern Shifts Next Week! The flow comes out of the south \u2026 and we see the Gulf of Mexico activated and open for business heading through the first week of March. This means much, much warmer and also wetter \u2014 good news for any drought concerns heading into to planting season. Next 10-days of Integrated Vapor Transport:

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours | Rain across TN Valley and into the Southeast from a frontal boundary

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 6:30 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 6:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 is 8.8\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Thursday

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114 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Thursday

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118 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 54 million at least 80\u00b0F but still in the 30s and 40s across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday evening

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Not seeing a major winter storm forming or much precipitation (snowfall) into early next week, unlike the GFS model, which is why we\u2019ll see the ECMWF 6-day snowfall quite light accumulations, but the Blend of Models juiced up with GFS snowfall.

Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

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Total Snowfall Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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GFS Snowfall Next 7-days | GFS 18z

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Skeptical about this exceptional snowfall in the Northeast over next 7-days!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 12-days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 12-days

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Boatloads of Precipitation / Rainfall from Weather Pattern Shift | Next 15-days

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Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

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Probability of 1-inch of snowfall or more in the next 15-days

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Probability of 3-inches of snowfall or more in the next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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Spring like warmth into the second week of March!

New York City | Next 15-days from ECMWF 12z \u2014 60s to almost 70\u00b0F

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Chicago | Next 15-days from ECMWF 12z \u2014 60s by next Thursday, but first 59\u00b0F on Friday.

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Washington D.C. next 15-days \u2014 on the upswing into March with 70s.

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 25 - March 1

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 2 - March 6

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 7 - March 11

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

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Relief is in sight from the harsh winter weather as the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d will be locked up over Arctic Canada and Alaska into mid-March. We\u2019ll be watching a (major) \u201csudden stratospheric warming\u201d (SSW) event to occur over next 10-days, and any near-surface or Lower 48 fallout / potential cold spell would be middle-March and onward.

One more Arctic blast to go \u2014 and it will be exceptionally intense but brief, thankfully. Temperature anomaly for the next 6-days shows the mega-TPV near Greenland combining with Alaska/NW Arctic Canada cold pool and descending into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Note that the cold lingers into Tuesday with the wedge in the Southeast U.S. (Atlanta) and the Mid-Atlantic.

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