{ "number": 881, "headline": "February 23, 2026 Monday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Multiple Arctic blasts likely into early March as extreme polar vortex spins in Canada", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-24", "published": "2026-02-24T01:15:09.177000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Monday Evening Headline: Blizzard of 2026 delivers massive snowfall and hurricane force wind gusts from AP News \u2014> For Northeast blizzard, everything was just right to roll up a monster snowfall

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This is post number 881: Good Evening! Day 54 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Coupon code for upgrade to annual subscriptions.

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\u201cI\u2019ve always been fascinated about how Mother Nature figures out how to put all the pieces together in order to maximize the most extreme outcome,\u2019' said private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. \u201dI think you could make a pretty good case that this is on par with some of the most impressive blizzards in history.\u201d

Preliminary snowfall analysis through early afternoon on Monday with still a LOT more to be added to the map. We\u2019ll update tomorrow to get the final observations. Historically, this storm system produced snowfall on par or exceeding the Blizzard of 1978 \u2014 the previous benchmark for New England. The slow movement and proximity of strong deformation bands of convective snowfall led to rates of 4\u201d per hour.

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Central Pressure in the 18z ECMWF analysis was 968 mb \u2026 on par with a hurricane. While this cyclone did not have tropical origins, it is similar to a post-tropical hurricane we\u2019d see in September or October with an expanded wind field and heavy precipitation on the back side within colder air. In late February = huge snowfall.

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The center of the blizzard is relatively calm with an eye-like feature \u2014 with shallow warm-core structure.

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A very intense \"tropospheric polar vortex\u201d or TPV is dominating our hemisphere with a \u201clobe\u201d connecting to the blizzard, which fueled its rapid pressure falls and intensification. Textbook intense \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d development in winter.

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours

Thankfully, we have less extreme winter weather to deal with for the rest of the week.

A storm system and atmospheric river will continue to landfall the Pacific Northwest including northern California.

A clipper system will head through the Great Lakes on Tuesday into the Northeast on Wednesday.

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Snowfall Next 48-hours

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Welcome snowfall in the northern Rockies \u2026 and then a large coverage from clipper system across Canada, the Great Lakes, and into New England.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 is -1.9\u00b0F below normal with coldest in TN/GA and eventually Florida.

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

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207 million below freezing to the Gulf coast including Florida.

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Upper-20s into North Florida Tuesday morning

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And freezing south of Interstate 4 east of Tampa and further down peninsula = record daily cold.

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High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Slow recovery of warmth across the Southeast into the 50s and only highs in the 60s in South Florida \u2014> chilly day!

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Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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High Temperatures on Wednesday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday afternoon

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Thursday afternoon

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 18z

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Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

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Predominant flow is out of the Southwest \u2014 much warmer and less snowfall potential for the mountains \u2014 most precipitation as rainfall. Break in storms after Wednesday.

Total Snowfall Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Total Precipitation (Rain + Snow) Next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Western Winter goes kaput: Sierra Nevada snowfall nearly blank \u2014 not much in the Great Basin or Colorado Rockies.

Clipper Systems keep the Great Lakes and Northeast wintry \u2014 with colder air for whatever moisture to fall as new snow.

Medium and Extended Range

Arctic Blast | Temperature Anomaly Next 12-days

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The massive \u201ctropospheric polar vortex\u201d circulation near Greenland tracks west across Arctic Canada to combine forces with a cold pool over Alaska.

Then, multiple \u201cblasts\u201d of very cold Arctic air head south into the Great Lakes and Northeast for the next 10-days \u2014 with potential for coldest air of the winter season in New England. This ECMWF HRES 12z run had -7\u00b0F for Tuesday, March 3rd for New York City, which would break every daily record past February 15th.

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The ensemble median is 6\u00b0F in New York City with many extreme cold tail ensembles.

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The intensity of the TPV near Greenland is extremely cold \u2014 near historical levels pushing -58\u00b0C at 500 mb. And, if that -50\u00b0C core stays coherent and moves closer to the Lower 48 in Manitoba or Ontario and Quebec, then each passing shortwave will deliver another Arctic blast, each becoming colder. This is an extremely cold period for Canada and it may be shared with the Lower 48 into first week of March before Spring tries again across the East Coast.

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Dynamic Tropopause from GFS next 7-days

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Truly massive \u201cwhite fuzzball\u201d smashes into/over Greenland and then breaks westward back toward Alaska with little loss of coherence.

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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This has a lot of cold potential to match the HRES assuming its cluster is chosen by Mother Nature. Sustained warm up after Day 12 \u2026 thankfully!

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 23 - Feb 27

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 28 - March 4

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 5 - March 9

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Monday Evening Headline: Blizzard of 2026 delivers massive snowfall and hurricane force wind gusts from AP News \u2014> For Northeast blizzard, everything was just right to roll up a monster snowfall

\u201cI\u2019ve always been fascinated about how Mother Nature figures out how to put all the pieces together in order to maximize the most extreme outcome,\u2019' said private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. \u201dI think you could make a pretty good case that this is on par with some of the most impressive blizzards in history.\u201d

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