{ "number": 877, "headline": "February 20, 2026 Blockbuster Blizzard Watch", "standfirst": "Major winter storm to form off Mid-Atlantic coast and deliver huge snowfall and gusty winds to New England", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-21", "published": "2026-02-21T02:14:07.936000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Friday Top Headline: A major winter storm will rapidly intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast and move off New England. Heavy snow and gusty winds will create dangerous blizzard conditions along the East Coast from New Jersey to southeast New England.

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ECMWF QPF as snowfall \u2026 huge amount of frozen moisture to fall sideways in gusty winds!

This is post number 877: Good Evening! Day 51 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Coupon code for upgrade to annual subscriptions.

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Updated ECMWF 18z guidance (high resolution 9-km) shows the lifecycle of a Miller Type B \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d off the Mid-Atlantic to New England coast dropping to about 970 mb on Tuesday.

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Heavy snowfall and gusty winds on the backside of the Low Pressure center will impact the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia and New York City.

Still uncertainty concerning snowfall accumulations but I think we are going to see the models trending upward in the coming 24-hours.

Wind Gusts \u2014 Monday morning

We can\u2019t yet pinpoint the maximum wind gusts for every location, but the track suggests the highest chance of hurricane force wind gusts would be in southeastern New England including Cape Code and Nantucket, which isn\u2019t unusual for this type of systems.

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Central Pressure in the low-970s at the \u201cbenchmark\u201d location

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A further westward track movement would mean even heavier snowfall and stronger winds into NYC and Boston.

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Overall Snowfall for next 4-days using a \u201cdynamic\u201d snow to liquid ratio \u2026

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Washington D.C. is in the 4\u201d to 6\u201d range \u2026 and the totals increase by steps as you head into New England. Philadelphia 6\u201d to 8\u201d and NYC 8\u201d to 10\u201d

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With 12\u201d to 18\u201d across New England \u2026 and this is just the floor \u2014 as I\u2019ll show the AIFS has significantly more snowfall, and the ensemble spread is still quite wide!

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The median ensemble snowfall (EPS 18z) is a tick above the ECMWF HRES \u2026 and this is 10:1 ratio, which is about right for temperatures in the upper-20s to lower 30s.

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The Ensemble Mean and Median are quite close \u2014 suggesting the range of snowfall amounts is fairly normally distributed, which is good, and desirable in an ensemble system once we come closer to the event e.g. within 3-4 days.

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There is spread around the mean \u2014 or interquartile spread around the median, and this shows were more \u201cboom or bust\u201d can be found.

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And, if we dial it up to the 90th percentile for more extreme outcomes, you can see we quickly get into the 15\u201d to 24\u201d+ range for the big cities = potential for quite a bit more than folks might expect from initial forecasts.

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Probability of 6\u201d of snowfall or more \u2014>

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And, let\u2019s dial it up to 12\u201d or more \u2014 which has quite a large area over land > 75%

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Now, let\u2019s see the ECMWF AIFS 18z depiction \u2014 the highest skill model on the planet right now \u2014 for global modeling.

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AIFS 18z snowfall is much higher across the board for this \u201cblockbuster blizzard\u201d

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Zooming out and expanding to 10-days \u2026 winter really comes back for the Great Lakes and Northeast into early March.

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Next 10-days Total Precipitation \u2014 otherwise rather dry with Arctic air and northwesterly flow dominating east of the Rockies.

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No more GFS with this storm

Not showing the GFS anymore \u2014 because it was out to lunch for the extreme snowfall totals over Washington D.C. with too high QPF. We shall stick with ECMWF and Blend of Models (version 5) for model guidance and the official NWS grids from human forecasters in the region.

Temperature Analysis from RTMA | 7:45 PM ET

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RTMA Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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The Lower 48 is below normal by -3.6\u00b0F

Saturday Low Temperatures

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High Temperatures on Saturday

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Sunday Low Temperatures

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Sunday High Temperatures

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Monday Low Temperatures \u2014 Arctic Air crashes through Southeast

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Coldest is Tuesday Morning

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207 million below freezing including into Florida down to Ocala, and perhaps to Interstate 4

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NDFD NWS Total Snowfall Next 72-hours

Preliminary \u201chuman\u201d forecasts from the National Weather Service \u2014 to be filled in through next 24-hours and coordinated among the offices.

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Maximum Wind Gusts next 72-hours

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 18z

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Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Upper Level 500 mb Temperature Field

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Temperature Anomaly Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 20 - Feb 24

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 25 - March 1

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 2 - March 6

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Friday Top Headline: A major winter storm will rapidly intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast and move off New England. Heavy snow and gusty winds will create dangerous blizzard conditions along the East Coast from New Jersey to southeast New England.

Updated ECMWF 18z guidance (high resolution 9-km) shows the lifecycle of a Miller Type B \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d off the Mid-Atlantic to New England coast dropping to about 970 mb on Tuesday.

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