{ "number": 875, "headline": "February 19, 2026 Winter Storm Watch", "standfirst": "Model differences leave some uncertainty about potential of major East Coast snowstorm", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-19", "published": "2026-02-19T15:50:12.187000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 875: Good Morning! Day 50 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Quick update to show what\u2019s happened overnight with the ECMWF and NOAA GFS weather modeling suites \u2014 not much has changed as we have 2 distinct solutions.

I am still heavily leaning to the ECMWF IFS and EPS (ensemble) solution for this mid-Atlantic / Nor\u2019easter but can\u2019t entirely discount the GFS until it decides to give up.

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Severe Weather (Enhanced Risk) with storm system spinning in the Great Lakes

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Long lifecycle supercells may form in Illinois and head through central Indiana into Ohio with risk of damaging winds, large hail, and even EF2+ tornadoes. Radar simulation (HRRR) next 18-hours until Friday 2 AM ET

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SPC Convective Risk Today \u2014 Enhanced

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SPC Discussion: Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today.

California storm system winds down later this evening, finally a break in the sequence of winter storms. Heavy Sierra snow continues to pile up!

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Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 All content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

East Coast Storm System \u2014 Mid-Atlantic + Nor\u2019easter Watch

Updated ECMWF 06z shows the low pressure center waiting to rapidly intensify or \u201cbomb out\u201d until late Sunday into Monday \u2014 missing the opportunity for the backside of the circulation to dump snowfall on the coast. The northeast track keeps the low pressure away from New England as well.

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Ensembles: The ECMWF EPS at 06z (median) still NOT interested in the coastal storm having major impacts to the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast.

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No change from Wednesday evening: The back side of the low pressure system will have moisture in cold-enough air on Monday, but the total QPF (amount of precipitation) would be too low to provide \u201cblockbuster\u201d storm snowfall totals. Instead, we\u2019re currently in the 2\u201d to 4\u201d category as the highest probability outcome.

Ensemble Probability of 3-inches of snow \u2014 about a coin flip from Washington D.C. to Philly and New York City

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Bumping up to 6\u201d probability of snowfall into Wednesday \u2026 not much here.

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And, we have 1 in 12 chance of seeing at least 6\u201d of snowfall along the I-95 corridor from DC/Philly/NYC. Most solution in Washington D.C. around 4\u201d with a few > 6\u201d out of a total of 51.

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Better opportunity for higher-end snowfall totals in New York City, but still ~10% outcome

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Updated ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z for late Sunday into Monday evening is closer to the coast than IFS (full physics) \u2026 and wraps much more moisture around the center into New England including Boston.

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ECMWF AIFS Single 06z \u2014 Snowfall Next 5-days

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4\u201d to 6\u201d from Washington D.C. to NYC \u2026 but heavier accumulations along immediate Atlantic coast \u2026 with 12\u201d to 16\u201d in Southeast New England.

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Small differences in timing of \u201crapid intensification\u201d determine subsequent track and impacts

Compare ECMWF IFS (left, 983 mb) and it's Ensemble Mean (right)

Quite similar.

ECMWF AIFS Single and AIFS Ensemble (mean)

AIFS-Single is to the west \u2014 closer to the coast while the AIFS-ENS mean is slightly east.

GFS 06z \u2014 continues to rapidly intensify the storm along the immediate coast.

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GFS 06z Heavy Snowfall for the Chesapeake Bay environs including D.C. and Philly \u2014 however, this is still an outlier solution!

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Enormous amounts of QPF > 3\u201d available as QPF would be 2 to 3+ feet of snowfall, which is unbelievable.

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GFS shows a major mid-Atlantic snow storm but the ECMWF suite of guidance is not on board. We are at 10% range for a \u201cblockbuster\u201d with the GFS model holding out with major impacts.

Subtle Difference in Intensity and tilt of the 500 mb Vorticity Maximum (trough axis) \u2014 ECMWF left / GFS right

ECMWF left / GFS right

ECMWF is flatter, less amplified, and thus will not \u201cphase\u201d immediately with the surface low pressure center \u2014 delaying intensifying until well east of the mid-Atlantic coast. However, GFS lights the fuse sooner and \u201cbombs out\u201d right along the coast = major impacts.

As you probably can guess, I am not a fan of the \u201cmodel comparisons\u201d but it\u2019s worthwhile to understand why each model is generating a given solution.

CONUS Radar Simulation through early morning Saturday (7 AM ET)

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Snowfall Next 48-hours

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NDFD NWS Total Snowfall Next 72-hours

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ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 06z

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Nor\u2019easter Watch Sunday-Monday \u2014 but sufficiently offshore to avoid major impacts \u2014 except for NOAA GFS

Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 only short break Fri-Sat for California

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Blend of Models ~4\u201d range for the Mid-Atlantic matching ECMWF

Significant snowfall for the Mountains continue!

ECMWF IFS 06z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 19 - Feb 23

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 24 - Feb 28

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 1 - March 5

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Quick update to show what\u2019s happened overnight with the ECMWF and NOAA GFS weather modeling suites \u2014 not much has changed as we have 2 distinct solutions.

I am still heavily leaning to the ECMWF IFS and EPS (ensemble) solution for this mid-Atlantic / Nor\u2019easter but can\u2019t entirely discount the GFS until it decides to give up.

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