{ "number": 874, "headline": "February 18, 2026 Wednesday Evening Update", "standfirst": "Arctic air returns behind potential Mid-Atlantic Coastal Storm this weekend", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-19", "published": "2026-02-19T01:38:03.386000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 874: Good Evening! Welcome to new paid subscribers (n=2) and everyone renewing for their second or third year! Day 49 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Arctic Air returns this weekend behind the East Coast storm system \u2014 with freeze into North Florida yet again on Tues/Wed of next week. However, this is not severe cold \u2014 and shows we are turning the corner on winter rather quickly \u2014 under 2 weeks until March. The cold air pool retreats to start the new month. Lows next 8-days:

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Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 All content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

East Coast Storm System \u2014 Nor\u2019easter Watch

The ECMWF EPS at 18z (median) of ensembles are still NOT interested in the coastal storm having major impacts to the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast.

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The back side of the low pressure system will have moisture in cold-enough air on Monday, but the total QPF (amount of precipitation) would be too low to provide \u201cblockbuster\u201d storm snowfall totals. Instead, we\u2019re currently in the 2\u201d to 4\u201d category as the highest probability outcome.

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Meanwhile, snowfall will pile up in the 6\u201d to 12\u201d range without a Nor\u2019easter but instead Clipper systems along the polar front boundary \u2014 and a Great Lakes storm system.

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Looking at the 6\u201d probability of snowfall through next Tuesday afternoon:

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And, we have 1 in 6 chance of seeing at least 6\u201d of snowfall along the I-95 corridor from DC/Philly/NYC, but almost a sure thing in central New York into New England including Boston with the other snowfall events.

Updated ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z for late Sunday into Monday evening is far enough off the coast during \u201crapid intensification\u201d or \u201cbomb-o-genesis\u201d to keep heaviest QPF and snowfall away.

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AIFS Snowfall Next 7-days

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GFS 18z \u2014 Happy Hour Forecast \u2014 goes bonkers with rapid intensification right along the coast \u2014 and heavy snowfall. This is an outlier solution.

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While this is unlikely to verify, it sure is a powerful \u201cblizzard\u201d that would be crippling if the track adjusted just slightly WNW along the I-95 corridor.

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GFS 18z Heavy Snowfall for the Chesapeake Bay environs

The problem is that GFS just doesn\u2019t perform well with shortwaves crossing the Rocky Mountains leading to cyclogenesis off the East Coast 3-days later.

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GFS 18z: 7-Day Snowfall

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GFS shows a major mid-Atlantic snow storm but the ECMWF suite of guidance is not on board. We are still in the 20% range for a \u201cblockbuster\u201d \u2014 instead looking at a manageable brief snowfall event for Monday. The Nor\u2019easter watch continues \u2026

CONUS Radar Simulation through early morning Friday (1 PM ET)

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SPC Discussion: Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes, hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

HRRR Simulated Radar for \u201csevere storm potential\u201d late Thursday

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HRRR total snowfall next 48-hours

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 45.2\u00b0F

Temperature Anomaly | 7:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 3.2\u00b0F

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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Only 65 million below freezing with coldest in Montana, into the Rockies, and Maine

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Very warm > 106 million at least 70\u00b0F surging into the Ohio River Valley

Into the mid-90s and evening 100\u00b0F along the Rio Grande

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Saturday afternoon

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Nice little storm system for the Great Lakes into Friday \u2014 scoots quickly off the East Coast \u2014 as we await the decision on the mid-Atlantic development

Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 18z

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Nor\u2019easter Watch Sunday-Monday \u2014 but sufficiently offshore to avoid major impacts \u2014 so far, so good.

Western U.S. \u2014> Multiple Storms continue Pinwheeling Moisture in a large cold trough/gyre

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ECMWF 18z Total Snowfall Next 6-days

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ECMWF 18z Total Precipitation Next 6-days

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Blend of Models is in the 2\u201d to 4\u201d range for the Mid-Atlantic matching ECMWF

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Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet / yards.

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Major surge of Arctic air returns for the Eastern U.S early next week \u2014 followed by another significant warm up \u2014 in the ensemble mean across the Lower 48. Then, the cold recharges again in the Arctic including northern Canada and Alaska.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 18 - Feb 22

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 23 - Feb 27

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 28 - March 4

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Arctic Air returns this weekend behind the East Coast storm system \u2014 with freeze into North Florida yet again on Tues/Wed of next week. However, this is not severe cold \u2014 and shows we are turning the corner on winter rather quickly \u2014 under 2 weeks until March. The cold air pool retreats to start the new month. Lows next 8-days:

The ECMWF EPS at 18z (median) of ensembles are still NOT interested in the coastal storm having major impacts to the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast.

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