{ "number": 873, "headline": "February 17, 2026 Tuesday Evening Update", "standfirst": "Still on blizzard watch, sort of, but plenty of winter weather until then", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-18", "published": "2026-02-18T02:22:42.152000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 873: Good Evening! Welcome to new subscribers and everyone renewing for their second or third year! Day 48 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 All content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

The next week will have plenty of winter weather while we wait to figure out if the developing East Coast storm will track far enough west to wallop the I-95 corridor.

The ECMWF EPS at 18z (median) of ensembles is not interested in the Nor\u2019easter at all \u2014 instead the majority of members miss out to sea.

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However, in the meantime, the northern tier from Dakotas to Great Lakes and New England will be on the top end of surge of Pacific moisture to combine cold air = stripe of significant snowfall.

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There is \u201cspread\u201d in the ensemble outcome for the Mid-Atlantic \u2014 with the 75% minus 25% range showing 4\u201d across the region, but since this skews right (to higher extremes), we should look at the 6\u201d probability.

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And, we have 1 in 5 chance of seeing at least 6\u201d of snowfall along the I-95 corridor from DC/Philly/NYC \u2026 until we get into the \u201cClipper\u201d moisture stream, with Boston having a high chance > 75%.

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Updated AIFS 18z has significant snowfall along the immediate coast but has trended out to sea with the low pressure center matching more so the IFS (Full physics)

Similarly, GFS 18z is a tad bit further east with strong low pressure (bomb cyclone category) \u2026 based upon this afternoon/evening guidance, I\u2019d say this is trending to being a non-event or minimal impacts. We just went through this for Presidents\u2019 Day blizzard that never happened. We\u2019ll keep trying!

Odds decreased for major Nor\u2019easter with potential for blockbuster snowfall: 1 in 5

CONUS Radar Simulation through early morning Wednesday (12 PM ET)

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Snowfall Next 48-hours into Thursday 1 PM ET

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 46.0\u00b0F

Temperature Anomaly | 8:15 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 5.8\u00b0F

Very low humidity = ongoing fires in Plains \u2014> extreme fire danger with winds

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Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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High Temperatures on Wednesday

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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Clipper systems / boundary of moisture into New England \u2014> 3\u201d for Boston

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Arrowhead of Minnesota over 2-feet of snowfall

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Still another 7-8 feet of snowfall expected in the Sierra during next 3-days, and it\u2019s not stopping anytime soon.

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Friday Evening

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Moisture from the Pacific storm systems surge northward with the jet stream into Southern Canada \u2014 and fuels a \u201cnorthern tier\u201d boundary with Clipper Systems \u2014> accumulating snow from the Dakotas into Great Lakes and Northeast.

Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 06z

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Nor\u2019easter Watch Sunday-Monday \u2014 but not looking good

Western U.S. \u2014> Multiple Storms Pinwheeling Moisture

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Sequence of storms until a break on Friday and Saturday before another HUGE circulation drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and spins more moisture onshore

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Holy moly \u2014 huge precipitation totals for California \u2014 rain at coast + mountain snow

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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The Blend of Models is an ensemble mean of multiple different models and ensembles, so this New England snow signal seems exceptional \u2014 but with multiple Clipper systems and plenty of moisture, may be a good average estimate!

Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet / yards.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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A major surge of Arctic air returns for the Eastern U.S early next week \u2014 followed by another significant warm up \u2014 in the ensemble mean.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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10-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z Cycle

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle, but seeing multiple lobes descending in the Northwest and Northeast with surface low pressure systems.

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 17 - Feb 21

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Well above normal for entire eastern U.S. but Rockies and western Canada very cold

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 22 - Feb 26

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Colder than normal just came into the Day 6-10 chunk with -7\u00b0F centered on Tallahassee.

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 27 - March 3

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But, warmth returns for the beginning of March.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

The next week will have plenty of winter weather while we wait to figure out if the developing East Coast storm will track far enough west to wallop the I-95 corridor.

The ECMWF EPS at 18z (median) of ensembles is not interested in the Nor\u2019easter at all \u2014 instead the majority of members miss out to sea.

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