{ "number": 872, "headline": "February 17, 2026 Tuesday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "On watch for a blockbuster blizzard Sunday for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-17", "published": "2026-02-17T17:04:38.227000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 872: Good Morning! Welcome to new subscribers and everyone renewing for their second or third year! Day 48 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 All content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

There\u2019s a lot going on today \u2014 and I could spend another hour typing up descriptions for the maps \u2014 so I\u2019m going focus on headlines and publish ASAP

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Top Story: Nor\u2019easter \u2014 Blockbuster Blizzard \u2014 WATCH

A major storm is likely to develop out of the Southeast U.S. and emerge off the Mid-Atlantic and either head (1) East out to Sea or (2) snuggle up nicely off New England and pound the I-95 corridor into submission (with snow)

Current trends with AIFS and GFS \u2014> major impacts, while the ECMWF IFS has been flip-flopping back and forth with 06z closer to the coast. This system is in the 5 to 6 day time frame, so predictability of the track should be pretty good into tomorrow \u2014 meaning we can either lock-in a blizzard or send it off to sea. I\u2019m favoring the AIFS since it incorporates the model bias intrinsically when it generates new forecast simulations.

AIFS has 18\u201d to 24\u201d for every big city from D.C. to Philly to NYC and Boston. Clean sweep \u2014 grand slam \u201cblockbuster blizzard\u201d

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And, GFS 12z just arrived as I\u2019m updating this blog \u2014 967 mb low pressure setting up shop just south of tip of southeast New England.

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Impressive blizzard with hurricane force wind gusts \u2026

Odds increasing for major Nor\u2019easter with potential for blockbuster snowfall

California Storm System on Tuesday

Another major storm system crashing into California today with heavy coastal rain and mountain snows. The upper-level pattern has shifted colder out of the Gulf of Alaska, and, in the coming days = more unsettled, more snowfall \u2026 extending inland across the Great Basin and Rockies. Everyone seems happy here to resume winter in earnest \u2014 make up for lost ground from the past several weeks of extraordinary warmth.

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Gusty Winds in the 40 mph with the rain bands \u2014 and much higher in the Sierra at hurricane force

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CONUS Radar Simulation through early morning Thursday (7 AM ET)

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Another 4-5 days of mild weather and warmth east of the Rockies \u2014 until the cold pool up in Western Canada finally cuts loose and floods eastward behind the developing Nor\u2019easter within a rather strong trough connected to the Polar Vortex.

Monster White Fuzzball (tropopause anomaly) over Arctic Canada on way to Greenland on Monday. More on this in coming days. A lobe extends southward into the Mid-Atlantic with a LOT of potential for rapid cyclogenesis (bomb cyclone development)

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 11:00 AM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 45.2\u00b0F

Temperature Anomaly | 11:00 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 8.7\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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High Temperature Anomaly on Tuesday

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Temperatures in the 70s in Nebraska are > 36\u00b0F above normal. California well below normal with rain and snowfall

Low Temperatures on Wednesday

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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Clipper system extension of moisture into New England \u2014> 2\u201d for Boston

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Arrowhead of Minnesota upwards of 2-feet of snowfall

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Still another 7-feet of snowfall expected in the Sierra during next 3-days, and it\u2019s not stopping anytime soon.

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Friday Morning

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High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014> Colder air returns into next week

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ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Moisture from the Pacific storm systems surge northward with the jet stream into Southern Canada \u2014 and fuels a \u201cnorthern tier\u201d boundary with Clipper Systems \u2014> accumulating snow from the Dakotas into Great Lakes and Northeast from Tues-Thursday.

Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 06z

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Nor\u2019easter Watch Sunday-Monday!

Western U.S. Pattern Change \u2014> Multiple Storms Pinwheeling Moisture

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Sequence of storms until a break on Friday and Saturday before another HUGE circulation drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and spins more moisture onshore

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Holy moly \u2014 huge precipitation totals for California \u2014 rain at coast + mountain snow

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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The Blend of Models is an ensemble mean of multiple different models and ensembles, so this New England snow signal seems exceptional \u2014 but with multiple Clipper systems and plenty of moisture, may be a good average estimate!

Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet / yards.

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Flagship ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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A major surge of Arctic air returns for the Eastern U.S early next week \u2014 followed by another significant warm up \u2014 in the ensemble mean.

ECMWF IFS 06z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 06z Cycle

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ECMWF AIFS 06z developed the storm system with major coastal impacts (change from yesterday)

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7-day snowfall totals would be astounding \u2014 can\u2019t \u201clead pipe\u201d cinch lock this quite yet, another 36-hours to get into the 4-day window

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle, but seeing multiple lobes descending in the Northwest and Northeast with surface low pressure systems.

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Total Precipitation Median from Ensembles Next 15-days

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Very little precipitation for Florida during the next 2-weeks \u2014 also Texas is mostly dry, and northward into the central plains

Ensemble Median next 15-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 00z)

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Interquartile spread (75th % minus 25th %) shows variability in ensemble members

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Snowfall is skewed toward heavier amounts \u2014 more extremes, so also need to look at probabilities, or individual point locations.

Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (00z)

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Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (00z)

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 17 - Feb 21

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Well above normal for entire eastern U.S. but the Rockies and western Canada are cold

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 22 - Feb 26

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Colder than normal just came into the Day 6-10 chunk with -7\u00b0F centered on Tallahassee.

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 27 - March 3

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But, warmth returns for the beginning of March.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

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There\u2019s a lot going on today \u2014 and I could spend another hour typing up descriptions for the maps \u2014 so I\u2019m going focus on headlines and publish ASAP

A major storm is likely to develop out of the Southeast U.S. and emerge off the Mid-Atlantic and either head (1) East out to Sea or (2) snuggle up nicely off New England and pound the I-95 corridor into submission (with snow)

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