{ "number": 871, "headline": "February 16, 2026 Monday Morning Weather", "standfirst": "Stormy western U.S. for the upcoming week while Clipper systems cross the northern tier", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-16", "published": "2026-02-16T16:03:54.102000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 871: Good Morning! Welcome to new subscribers and everyone renewing for their second or third year! Day 47 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Major storm system crashing into California today with heavy coastal rain and mountain snows. The main moisture flow is out of the Southwest, but the upper-level pattern will shift colder out of the Gulf of Alaska in the coming days = more unsettled, more snowfall \u2026 extending inland across the Great Basin and Rockies. Everyone happy here to resume winter in earnest \u2014 make up for lost ground from the past several weeks of extraordinary warmth.

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Over the past 30-days, New England and the Great Lakes have been the snowfall champions.

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CONUS Radar Simulation through early morning Tuesday (3 AM ET)

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The entire Western U.S. will see rain/snow from two storms systems converging on the coast. A weak clipper system heading through Ontario into New England will have some light accumulations.

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 10:00 AM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 40.8\u00b0F \u2014 with only 22 million below freezing

Temperature Anomaly | 10:00 AM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 6.7\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Monday

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Quite mild east of the Rockies especially in the Plains \u2014 well into the 60s and 70s. Above freezing in the Northeast just enough to melt snow even with the mid-February sun angle.

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High Temperature Anomaly on Monday

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Temperatures in the mid-60s in Iowa are > 30\u00b0F above normal. Only below normal slice of the Lower 48 is along the immediate west coast

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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More than 10-feet of snowfall expected in the Sierra during next 3-days, but it\u2019s not stopping anytime soon.

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Thursday Morning

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Storm System: Radar Simulation next 18-hours \u2014 through Tuesday 3 AM ET

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High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014> Mid-February thaw continues

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Arctic air is mostly at bay, but it\u2019s still not spring in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast as high temperatures revert back to the 20s and 30s by next weekend.

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Moisture from the Pacific storm system surges northward with the jet stream into Southern Canada \u2014 and fuels a \u201cnorthern tier\u201d boundary with Clipper Systems \u2014> accumulating snow from the Dakotas into Great Lakes and Northeast from Tues-Thursday. High uncertainty about potential Nor\u2019easter early next week.

Eastern U.S. Next 6-days storm systems | ECMWF 06z

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Next significant precipitation for Northeast: Clipper system Thursday, then another surge of moisture out of the south this weekend

Western U.S. Pattern Change \u2014> Winter Resumes in a Major Way

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Major Storm System current underway across California but just the first in a sequence within a large trough or gyre that sets up shop offshore in the Pacific.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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The Blend of Models is an ensemble mean of multiple different models and ensembles, so this New England snow signal seems exceptional \u2014 but with multiple Clipper systems and plenty of moisture, may be a good average estimate!

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Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet / yards.

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Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author (not A.I.) including the maps.

Flagship ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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A brief surge of Arctic air returns for the Eastern U.S early next week \u2014 so by next weekend we should be talking about an Arctic cold front that may be associated with a Nor\u2019easter. Then, another warm up into early March as we turn the corner toward Spring.

ECMWF IFS 06z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Multiple centers of low pressure swirl off the California coast and direct a sequence of atmospheric rivers inland originating mainly from the Gulf of Alaska. Seeing the Gulf of Mexico more involved in weather systems as we transition into March but the cold/dry air continues to infiltrate the Lower 48 first from the U.S. Northwest \u2014 and then from east of the Rockies into next weekend.

We\u2019ve narrowly escaped a couple coastal storms in a row now \u2014 we\u2019ll see if our luck holds out early next week.

ECMWF 00z Snowfall | Next 10-days

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Nor\u2019easter that was in the 12z grid on Sunday \u2014 has gone poof! No development, but we\u2019ll see if it comes back this afternoon.

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We\u2019ll monitor this \u201cpotential\u201d storm, but we\u2019ve narrowly escaped \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowfalls (just barely) when medium-to-long range modeling showed major impacts.

10-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 06z Cycle

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ECMWF AIFS 06z still does develop the storm system \u2014 but it\u2019s sufficiently offshore to avoid coastal impacts \u2014 at least at this juncture.

Checking on \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowfall in NYC from ensemble members (00z ECMWF EPS)

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2 main opportunities: Clipper system next Thurs/Fri, and then major Nor\u2019easter following Sun/Mon. Boston:

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle, but seeing multiple lobes descending in the Northwest and Northeast with surface low pressure systems.

Total Precipitation Median from Ensembles Next 10-days

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Ensemble Median next 10-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 00z)

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Interquartile spread (75th % minus 25th %) shows the variability in ensemble members

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Snowfall is skewed toward heavier amounts \u2014 more extremes, so also need to look at probabilities.

Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (00z)

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Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (00z)

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

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Eastern U.S. major warmth for the next 2-weeks on average.

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 16 - Feb 20

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Well above normal for entire eastern U.S.

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 21 - Feb 25

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 26 - March 2

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Major storm system crashing into California today with heavy coastal rain and mountain snows. The main moisture flow is out of the Southwest, but the upper-level pattern will shift colder out of the Gulf of Alaska in the coming days = more unsettled, more snowfall \u2026 extending inland across the Great Basin and Rockies. Everyone happy here to resume winter in earnest \u2014 make up for lost ground from the past several weeks of extraordinary warmth.

Over the past 30-days, New England and the Great Lakes have been the snowfall champions.

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