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The ranks thinned since yesterday as Franklin and Jose departed into the North Atlantic as post-tropical systems. Katia and Gert are both small but handsome tropical storms. Idalia is about to regain tropical storm status briefly as it lashes Bermuda with gusty winds and rain.
The main event is off the coast of Africa with a tropical wave expected to develop next week into a powerful Cabo Verde hurricane to herald in the peak of the season.
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Idalia is lingering as a post-tropical system and will shed its front to become subtropical or tropical again. Gert and Katia are heading out to sea but will not last much longer. Gert was upgraded to a tropical storm after 11-days of wandering around the subtropical Atlantic somehow managing to maintain its low-level circulation.
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The tropical wave in the far eastern MDR is expected to become a major hurricane according to the vast majority of ECMWF EPS ensembles. The track at 10-days is to the north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Let\u2019s hope this remains a fish storm. The next name is Lee.
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There\u2019s usually a small, random chance of a tropical storm or hurricane development elsewhere like in the Gulf of Mexico in 2-weeks. However, this is just too small of a chance to consider. We are probably 10-years away from having confident 10-day track and intensity guidance. The next week looks quiet for the United States.
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Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Area of low pressure likely to develop later next week, but no impacts to land are expected.
Saola (09W) brushed Hong Kong with 80-90 mph winds and then made landfall in China on Friday.
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Typhoon Haikui (10W) is now forecast to directly impact Taiwan as a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon depending upon its battle with wind shear preventing the eye from organizing. Ocean waters east of Taiwan are very warm so this is an ideal location for the most intense Typhoons. Kirogi (11W) has fallen apart.
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The main event is off the coast of Africa with a tropical wave expected to develop next week into a powerful Cabo Verde hurricane to herald in the peak of the season.
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