{ "number": 867, "headline": "February 12, 2026 Thursday Evening Update", "standfirst": "Unlikely to see a Nor'easter early next week but California will be bombarded by major storm system", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-13", "published": "2026-02-13T02:53:25.286000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 867: Good Evening! \u2014> Day 43 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Headlines this Thursday Evening:

Running late \u2014 so I will keep commentary to a minimum tonight, and let the maps run the show.

I wanted to show GFS 18z for a change of pace, just to give everyone an idea of what solutions are there for non-ECMWF based modeling. And, we see an active weather pattern for the next 10-days with moisture bombarding the Western U.S. and then a northern storm track into middle of next week.

GFS 18z does not intensify a Nor\u2019easter for Presidents\u2019 Day.

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Jet Stream Next 6-days

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Dip/kink off the West Coast \u2014> wetter & colder (mountain snow) pattern for a while!

Much Warmer Temperatures into Next Week \u2014 Highs through next Saturday much above normal

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Potential Presidents\u2019 Day Nor\u2019easter: out to sea & limited development! ECMWF 18z update does snow some brief snowfall on the very northern edge of the heavier precipitation envelope, but the track is quickly due east without phasing with the upper-level trough / Polar Vortex Anomaly over Quebec.

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However, there are still a handful of ensemble members that are suggesting that northern edge of precipitation could be heavy snow > 6\u201d

Ensemble probability of 6-inches + Snowfall (18Z EPS)

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I see the maximum of 1 in 4 chance of significant snowfall in Philadelphia and 1 in 6 in NYC. Small chance, but still on the board as an option!

Indeed, the median snowfall outcome is almost a non-event: Median snowfall next 6-days

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But, the interquartile spread (75% minus 25%) shows where the highest variance in member solutions resides \u2014 in southern PA including Philadelphia.

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And, a quick look at all 51 members for Philadelphia \u2014 you interpret this as conditional \u2014 if it snows, then it could be a \u201cbig ticket\u201d \u2014 however, that is a low probability outcome.

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Chance of a \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowstorm for Presidents\u2019 Day is low ~10% and not likely, but 1 in 4 chance of upwards of 6\u201d in Philadelphia

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014 Atmospheric Rivers next 12-days

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Subtropical moisture feeds out of the Pacific associated with areas of low pressure dipping southward along the U.S. West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska \u2014. great for Rocky Mountain snowfall \u2014 and then downstream rain in Texas and the Southeast. Overall this a more active weather pattern with the main polar vortex northerly flow shut off for the next week.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Major warming trend for the next 7-12 days across the Lower 48 with only exception being the West Coast. You can see the major Alaska + Western Canada cold pool intensify but largely remain stuck through the end of February.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Storm system across Texas into the Southeast from Saturday - Monday unlikely to become a major Nor\u2019easter. However, heavy rainfall (welcome) across the south.

Major atmospheric river into California + storm system!

Chicago 7-day Forecast \u2014 50s to 60\u00b0F next Wednesday

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New York City 7-Day Forecast: upper-40s next week

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Washington D.C. 7-Day Forecast: 50s again on Saturday will feel like a heat wave, and then close to 60\u00b0F next week should melt most of the remaining snow piles

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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ECMWF 18z Snowfall | Next 6-days

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West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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Major storm system Sunday into Wednesday with multiple days of onshore moisture flow!

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014 repeat, this is long range

Winter is not over by any stretch of the imagination.

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Total through 15-days \u2014 still seeing \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowfalls showing up in the Northeast and Midwest and Great Lakes in the long-range.

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15-day Precipitation (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z

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HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

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Cut-off trough / storm system arrives in the Southwest \u2014 which will become the weather maker for Texas on Saturday and then push east.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Sunday evening

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 44.3\u00b0F \u2014 but 106 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:15 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 5.2\u00b0F

Low Temperatures on Friday

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32.4\u00b0F average Lower 48 minimum - 165 M below freezing

High Temperatures Friday

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82 million above 70\u00b0F

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 15-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Long Range | Ensemble Median next 15-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

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Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 12 - Feb 16

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Over 20\u00b0F above normal for upper Midwest for a 5-day chunk \u2014 fabulous for mid-February.

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 17 - Feb 21

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17\u00b0F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest centered upon Missouri

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 22 - Feb 26

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Shrinking above normal warmth intensity (down to 6\u00b0F above normal) in the center of the Lower 48 \u2014 continue to see the looming / huge cold pool over Western Canada + cooler air across California \u2026 zooming out to see it (note the map projection is flat) for nearing the end of February.

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Update on Global Temperatures next 2-weeks

Using the Ensemble Mean from the EPS 2-meter temperatures (ECMWF 12z) you can see the \u201cglobal areal average\u201d in the upper right corner start out from +0.97\u00b0F at the beginning compared to the 30-year climatology (1991-2020) and drop all the way to +0.04\u00b0F in two weeks \u2014 loss of almost 1\u00b0F globally compared to climatology. How is that possible?

Colder air over the continents = sensible heat loss = rapid radiational cooling due to albedo and reflection of the late February sun angle (in the NH) back to space \u2014> Earth\u2019s radiator.

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This will skew the February global monthly mean temperature anomaly colder.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Headlines this Thursday Evening:

Major warming trend for much of the Eastern Lower 48 relative to the frigidity we saw over the past 2 weeks.

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