{ "number": 866, "headline": "February 11, 2026 Wednesday Evening Update", "standfirst": "Mid-February thaw into next week will feel incredible for frozen Americans", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-12", "published": "2026-02-12T02:39:00.392000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 866: Good Evening! \u2014> Day 42 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Turning the corner on winter? At least east of the Rockies, we are warming up with the Polar Vortex mainly kept locked up in northern Arctic Canada. That\u2019s good news also more of a subtropical moisture feed can help dent the growing drought conditions from Texas into the Southeast including Florida.

The Jet Stream buckles off the U.S. West Coast, dips southward, and then streaks eastward with subtropical moisture. This will cool off California and unsettle the west coast with bouts of rain and snowfall for the mountains. \u2014> Pattern flip!

Jet Stream Next 6-days

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Warmer Temperatures into Next Week \u2014 Highs through next Friday

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Good news \u2014 daytime highs above freezing for almost entire Lower 48 population during the next 8-days meaning decent thawing with higher mid-to-late February sun angle.

Update on the potential Presidents\u2019 Day Nor\u2019easter: out to sea & limited development! ECMWF 18z update

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I think we can foreclose potential of a major snowstorm across the Northeast due to lack of phasing of the surface low with the upper-level trough and not enough cold air. So, the precipitation will be rain.

Ensemble probability of 6-inches + Snowfall (18Z EPS)

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1 in 6 chance of > 6\u201d in New York City and 1 in 5 chance in Boston from the ensembles with many members showing zero. Also, another excellent exhibit why the ensemble mean is misleading.

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New York City
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Boston

Chance of a \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowstorm for Presidents\u2019 Day is low ~10% and not likely.

Headlines this Wednesday:

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014 Atmospheric Rivers next 6-days

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Subtropical moisture feeds out of the Pacific associated with areas of low pressure dipping southward along the U.S. West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska \u2014. great for Rocky Mountain snowfall \u2014 and then downstream rain in Texas and the Southeast. Overall this a more active weather pattern with the main polar vortex northerly flow shut off for the next week.

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Major warming trend for the next 7-12 days across the Lower 48 with only exception being the West Coast. You can see the major Alaska + Western Canada cold pool intensify but largely remain stuck through the end of February.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Storm system across Texas into the Southeast from Saturday - Monday unlikely to become a major Nor\u2019easter. However, heavy rainfall (welcome) across the south.

ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

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Chicago 7-day Forecast \u2014 50s to maybe close to 60\u00b0F next Wednesday

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Boston into the upper-30s and 40s \u2014 slow progress!

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New York City 7-Day Forecast: 40s next week

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Washington D.C. 7-Day Forecast: 50s again on Saturday will feel like a heat wave

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Dallas Fort Worth 7-Day Forecast: 70s and maybe 80\u00b0F

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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Next winter storm takes shape Sunday into next week

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z

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15-day Precipitation (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z

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HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

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Quiet \u2014 until cut-off trough / storm system arrives in the Southwest \u2014 which will become the weather maker for Texas on Saturday and then push east.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Saturday evening

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 44.3\u00b0F \u2014 only 49 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 5.2\u00b0F

Low Temperatures on Thursday

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32.1\u00b0F average Lower 48 minimum - 156M below freezing and ZERO below 0\u00b0F

High Temperatures Thursday

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67 million above 70\u00b0F

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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Long Range | Ensemble Median next 15-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

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Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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European Excursion \u2014 below normal temperatures settle across much of Europe into the final week of February \u2014 EPS 12z ensemble mean temperature anomaly next 15-days

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Weather Next 6-days \u2014 check out all of the storms \u2014 European weather is crazy busy lately.

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Precipitation Next 6-days \u2014 huge totals for northern Spain + France \u2014 and then eastward into the Mediterranean

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Total Snowfall Next 6-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 11 - Feb 15

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Up to 25\u00b0F above normal for upper Midwest for a 5-day chunk \u2014 fabulous for mid-February

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 16 - Feb 20

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18\u00b0F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest centered upon Iowa

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 21 - Feb 25

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Shrinking above normal warmth in the center of the Lower 48 \u2014 looming / huge cold pool over Western Canada, and cooler air across California \u2026 zooming out to see it (note the map projection is flat)

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Normally the blog would be over! But there\u2019s more because I am very curious about global temperatures over the next 2-weeks.

Using the Ensemble Mean from the EPS 2-meter temperatures (ECMWF 12z) you can see the \u201cglobal areal average\u201d in the upper right corner start out from +0.99\u00b0F at the beginning compared to the 30-year climatology (1991-2020) and drop all the way to +0.04\u00b0F in two weeks \u2014 loss of almost 1\u00b0F globally compared to climatology. How is that possible? Colder air over the continents = sensible heat loss = rapid radiational cooling due to albedo and reflection of the late February sun angle (in the NH) back to space \u2014> Earth\u2019s radiator.

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Be back on Thursday!

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Turning the corner on winter? At least east of the Rockies, we are warming up with the Polar Vortex mainly kept locked up in northern Arctic Canada. That\u2019s good news also more of a subtropical moisture feed can help dent the growing drought conditions from Texas into the Southeast including Florida.

The Jet Stream buckles off the U.S. West Coast, dips southward, and then streaks eastward with subtropical moisture. This will cool off California and unsettle the west coast with bouts of rain and snowfall for the mountains. \u2014> Pattern flip!

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