{ "number": 863, "headline": "February 9, 2026 Monday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Very warm weather across the Central U.S with 42 million at least 80\u00b0F", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-09", "published": "2026-02-09T16:05:19.183000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 863: Good Morning! Hope everyone enjoyed Super Bowl 60, especially the beautiful weather in Santa Clara. Can you imagine if the game was held in New York City like back in 2014? The extreme cold in the Northeast will likely foreclose any open-air Super Bowls in the Northeast. Then again, the hockey game played outdoors in Tampa was also \"too cold\u201d \u2014 Day 40 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

\"\"

Cold Canadian Arctic air continues to spill across the warm Atlantic waters creating beautiful cloud streets and \u201cocean effect\u201d snowfall off the New Jersey coastline over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream wall.

Headlines this Monday morning:

Drought concerns across the Lower 48 with the glaring exception of California!

This winter has featured extended periods of cold, dry Canadian Arctic air, and not very much precipitation. Texas and Florida, Illinois and Indiana all could use some bountiful rain/snow in the coming weeks to get ready for Spring.

\"\"
\"\"

Over the past 30-days, the Western U.S. has largely been under the influence of ridging so any atmospheric rivers would be directed well north into Alaska or Western Canada. While the expected precipitation (liquid equivalent) isn\u2019t very much from Jan 9 - Feb 8, the noticeable lack of \u201cwater\u201d across the Western U.S. would be quite problematic for the spring if we didn\u2019t see a major pattern change on the way.

\"\"

That pattern change = wetter and colder (more snow) across the Western U.S. as the jet stream dips well south into northern Mexico \u2014 and picks up subtropical moisture to dump on the Southeast.

Seems everyone is winning over the next 10-days! We ditch the coldest air, and see more moisture in places that need it.

\"\"
Blend of Models | Precipitation Total next 10-days

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its third year. To receive daily new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author including the maps!

Subscribe now

Flagship ECMWF 00z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

ECMWF IFS 06z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

\"\"
My favorite parameter

ECMWF 06z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

\"\"

Moisture Transport Next 10-days | Integrated Vapor Transport

\"\"

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

\"\"

Weak but coherent storm system landfalls central California on Wednesday with a burst of rainfall across the entire state and snowfall at higher elevations. This is coming out of the Southwest, so warmer system + higher snow elevations.

Then, we change the direction of upper-level flow generally out of the north from the Gulf of Alaska = cooler, more unsettled into next week.

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

\"\"

Only show in town here is a Clipper system through Canada into Tues/Wed.

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF 00z

\"\"

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 06z

\"\"

No doubt about heavy snowfall returning to the Western U.S.

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

\"\"

Clipper system performs quite well \u2014 look at all of the snowfall for Ontario then extending into New York and New England. Boston may get swiped with 2\u201d or 3\u201d

\"\"

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

\"\"

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days

\"\"
\"\"

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 9:45 AM ET

\"\"

Avg Lower 48 temperature was 36.6\u00b0F \u2014 145 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 9:45 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 5.2\u00b0F

\"\"

High Temperatures on Monday

\"\"

Heat wave across the central U.S. with over 42 million at least 80\u00b0F

\"\"

Temperatures are way above normal by 25\u00b0F to 37\u00b0F from Texas to Nebraska.

We won\u2019t get to freezing in New York City on Monday!

\"\"

One more day of freezing \u2014 until a mediocre thaw arrives!

\"\"

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

34.4\u00b0F average Lower 48 minimum - 140M below freezing and only 220K below 0\u00b0F

\"\"

High Temperatures Tuesday

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir is full loaded but well to the north over Arctic Canada. Let\u2019s hope it stays there!

Multiple troughs into the Pacific Northwest try to pull that cold PV air southward.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

\"\"

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Long Range Snowfall | EPS 00z \u2014 Next 10-days Ensemble Median

\"\"

Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 10-days

\"\"

Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 10-days

\"\"
\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 9 - Feb 13

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 14 - Feb 18

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 19 - Feb 23

\"\"

Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S. as California and the West Coast goes negative anomaly \u2014 and strongly so. Huge cold pool forms over Alaska and Western Canada

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Cold Canadian Arctic air continues to spill across the warm Atlantic waters creating beautiful cloud streets and \u201cocean effect\u201d snowfall off the New Jersey coastline over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream wall.

Headlines this Monday morning:

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-9-2026-monday-winter-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "187389269.february-9-2026-monday-winter-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-9-2026-monday-winter-weather", "slug": "february-9-2026-monday-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/863/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/863/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "bb635f35c55bf3aab94dcff253cf57af38cd1a27c85820fdcf4e2aa5244a5b3a" }