{ "number": 861, "headline": "February 6, 2026 Friday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Next several days will remain very cold across the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-07", "published": "2026-02-07T02:41:30.150000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 861: Good Evening! Winter weather gets underway w/surprise snow storm (?) for Boston + Arctic blast behind it. Day 37 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its third year. To receive daily new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author including the maps!

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HRRR 00z came in like a wrecking ball with a \u201cNorlun trough\u201d or inverted trough/convergence zone on the back side of a developing Atlantic cyclone offshore. The initial snow is from the Clipper portion of this event but as the storm system organized well offshore, the circulation around it lines up heavy snow bands along the eastern New England coast including Boston.

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Indeed HRRR delivers 14\u201d in Boston \u2014 which would be quite a surprise considering the current forecasts were in the 4\u201d to 6\u201d range.

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At 1 PM ET, it will be \u201csnowing to beat the band\u201d or \u201cpuking\u201d snow (at least according to HRRR). This banding event could also move W/E by 50 miles and completely change the impacted areas.

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Snowfall Accumulation over the next 48-hours shows a lot of \u201cwasted\u201d snow over the wall of the Gulf Stream current as Arctic air undercuts the warm moist air being conveyor\u2019d behind the low pressure center.

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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My favorite parameter \u2014 showing the blast of cold and dry Canadian Arctic air into the Lower 48 through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic like a tendril of smoke.

Turns out the developing storm into weekend off the East Coast may have some impressive impacts to the New England coast. We\u2019ll see!

Not much change from yesterday\u2019s update: West coast: atmospheric river landfalls WA/OR this weekend and lingers southward down California into next week. Plenty of welcome moisture for snowfall will be delivered to higher elevations. This AR is from the due west \u2014 warmer origin. However, into middle of next week, the flow is decidedly out of the north and within a building trough from Alaska, colder and more typical of mid-winter = snowfall.

Snowfall from that ECMWF 18z run over the next 6-days

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Snowfall returns to California Sierra next week. Also extends into the Rockies.

Major Arctic Blast for Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast

ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

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Moisture Transport Next 10-days | Integrated Vapor Transport

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This isn\u2019t fantasy land completely b/c the storm develops in the 6-7 day time frame and heads ENE into the Mid-Atlantic \u2014 but here are Days 8 and 12 \u2014 with total snowfall for next 12-days from ECMWF 12z (for reference) \u2014 reminder, we don\u2019t \u201clead pipe cinch lock\u201d anything from the global models past Day 5, but keep a close eye to monitor trends. This would be quite exciting come Monday and we have a Presidents\u2019 Day weekend storm to talk about \u2014 it\u2019s been on the radar for a few days, if you recall.

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European 6-day Precipitation Type and Intensity

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Busy pattern continues across Southern Europe with multiple little storms crossing into the Med. and continuing onward with plenty of moisture from the Atlantic.

Spain and Portugal will continue to see major rainfall \u2026 but also through the Mediterranean for Italy, Greece, and Turkey.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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Atmospheric river landfalls the Pacific Northwest through Monday out of the Southwest. Then, the pattern shifts to a trough and the moisture will come out of the Northwest = much colder air mass = huge snowfall on the way.

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

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More cold Canadian Arctic air for the Northeast as storm systems form/track well offshore. The Clippers may drop a fresh blanket of snow prior to exiting into the North Atlantic.

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 44.5\u00b0F \u2014 115 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 6.7\u00b0F

Low Temperatures next 8-days

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High Temperatures next 8-days

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Saturday Low Temperatures

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181 million below freezing \u2014 and even about 10 million below 0\u00b0F

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High Temperatures on Saturday

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Not a very warm weekend across the Great Lakes and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic including Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, DC, and up I-95 from Philly to NYC.

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Sunday Low Temperatures

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Even colder across the region with subzero actual temperatures capturing several states. Single digits along I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philly, NYC and Boston.

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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Low Temperatures on Monday

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And, the cold continues into Monday morning \u2014 with calm winds and clear skies, might be the worst/coldest of the next 3 days

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Boston next 7-days (NWS) \u2014> relief/thaw arrives by next Wed/Thurs

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NYC next 7-days (NWS)

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Washington D.C. next 7-days (NWS)

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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Significant warming trend for the central U.S. into Days 6-10, but it now appears we have a return of a trough into following weekend before trying again to warm up the East Coast entirely.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

You can see from AIFS the trough formation at Days 7-9 again in the Northeast \u2014 that is not a warm single for Valentine\u2019s Day!

Quick Look at European Temperature Anomaly over next 15-days

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Northern Europe remains very cold \u2014 but the warmth from the Atlantic moisture feed will keep the entire Mediterranean much warmer than normal.

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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Long Range Snowfall | EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

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Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Probability of at least 12\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Quite a few \u201cbig ticket\u201d items on the menu for Boston and NYC as the overall large-scale pattern over North America favors snow storms and Nor\u2019easters!

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 6 - Feb 10

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 11 - Feb 15

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 16 - Feb 20

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Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S. as California and the West Coast goes negative anomaly \u2014 and strongly so.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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HRRR 00z came in like a wrecking ball with a \u201cNorlun trough\u201d or inverted trough/convergence zone on the back side of a developing Atlantic cyclone offshore. The initial snow is from the Clipper portion of this event but as the storm system organized well offshore, the circulation around it lines up heavy snow bands along the eastern New England coast including Boston.

Indeed HRRR delivers 14\u201d in Boston \u2014 which would be quite a surprise considering the current forecasts were in the 4\u201d to 6\u201d range.

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