{ "number": 860, "headline": "February 5, 2026 Thursday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Extreme cold returns for several days across Northeast prolonging frigid period", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-06", "published": "2026-02-06T02:51:27.838000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 860: Good Evening! Continued quiet weather until weekend Canadian Arctic blast into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Day 36 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

The 5th of every month is ECMWF Seasonal Day when the 7-month forecast is released from their coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model. The ensemble plumes for the NINO3.4 box in the Pacific switch quite warm > 1.5\u00b0C by middle of summer 2026 indicating the rapid onset of El Ni\u00f1o. However, there remains uncertainty about the timing of the Ni\u00f1o onset as well as the final intensity of the Pacific warm water along the Equator.

\"\"

The SST anomaly map for July 2026 from ECMWF SEA5 shows the warmth along the equator off the coast of South America suggesting a more canonical El Ni\u00f1o development. The Atlantic is a tick above the 30-year climatology but not \u201con fire\u201d as in years past suggesting a more moderate hurricane forecast not even taking into account the wind shear expected from El Ni\u00f1o raging on the Pacific. Not much more to be said at this juncture as the \u201cspring predictability barrier\u201d limits seasonal forecast skill in the Northern Hemisphere until April onward.

\"\"

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

My favorite parameter \u2014 showing the blast of cold and dry Canadian Arctic air into the Lower 48 through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic like a tendril of smoke.

The Atlantic storm track remains active but low pressure systems form and intensify well off the East Coast avoiding impacts.

On the west coast \u2014 an atmospheric river landfalls WA/OR this weekend and lingers into California into next week. Plenty of welcome moisture for snowfall will be delivered to higher elevations. This AR is from the due west \u2014 warmer origin. However, into middle of next week, the flow is decidedly out of the north and within a building trough from Alaska \u2014 much colder \u2014> pattern shift ahead, finally.

\"\"

Snowfall from that ECMWF 18z run over the next 6-days

\"\"

Great to see Nevada and Utah getting heavy snowfall. The Northeast is spared major impacts from any large storms, but could still see 3\u201d to 6\u201d of fluffy snow from Clipper systems that have access to Pacific origin moisture.

One more Major Arctic Blast at least for the Winter

ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

\"\"

Upper-Level \u201cTropospheric Polar Vortex\u201d Pattern for Saturday morning

\"\"

The 500 mb trough and temperatures colder than -35\u00b0C extending from Hudson Bay to off the Mid-Atlantic coast \u2014 actually quite impressive. The weakening trend seen over the past couple days in the model has reversed.

500 mb Height Anomaly Saturday late morning

\"\"

Thickness also Saturday morning

\"\"

Precipitable Water Saturday morning

\"\"

And, temperature anomaly the next morning on Sunday

\"\"

This is a heavy duty blast of cold air \u2014 and compounds the previous 2-weeks+ of brutal cold + snow cover that just won\u2019t thaw until maybe next Wednesday.

While individual daily record lows may not be shattered, the longevity and cumulative nature of the cold is quite serious as it stresses pipes, wears out heating, and we start to see failures from prolonged winter.

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its third year. To receive daily new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author!

Moisture Transport Next 10-days | Integrated Vapor Transport

\"\"

European 6-day Precipitation Type and Intensity

\"\"

Busy pattern continues across Southern Europe with multiple little storms crossing into the Med. and continuing onward with plenty of moisture from the Atlantic.

Spain and Portugal will continue to see major rainfall \u2026 but also through the Mediterranean for Italy, Greece, and Turkey.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

\"\"

Atmospheric river landfalls the Pacific Northwest through Monday out of the Southwest. Then, the pattern shifts to a trough and the moisture will come out of the Northwest = much colder air mass = huge snowfall on the way.

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

\"\"

More cold Canadian Arctic air for the Northeast as storm systems form/track well offshore. The Clippers may drop a fresh blanket of snow prior to exiting into the North Atlantic.

Tomorrow morning\u2019s weather \u2014> This evening\u2019s Frontal Boundaries

\"\"

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

\"\"

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

\"\"

Fresh blanket of light snowfall for even colder conditions during overnight Sat/Sun into Monday \u2014 with temperatures cratering under clear skies.

\"\"
\"\"

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days

\"\"
\"\"

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

Avg Lower 48 temperature was 43.6\u00b0F \u2014 137 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 5.9\u00b0F

Low Temperatures next 8-days

\"\"

High Temperatures next 8-days

\"\"

Low Temperatures Friday

\"\"

188 million below freezing \u2014 average of 30.3\u00b0F

\"\"
\"\"

High Temperatures Friday

\"\"

Still 66 million stay below freezing during day mainly across Northeast. 70s and nearly 80\u00b0F in Texas.

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Saturday Low Temperatures

\"\"

Bottom drops out in Great Lakes especially in Ontario and Quebec.

\"\"

High Temperatures on Saturday

\"\"

Sunday Low Temperatures

\"\"

Even colder across the region with subzero actual temperatures capturing several states. Single digits along I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philly, NYC and Boston.

\"\"

High Temperatures on Sunday

\"\"

Low Temperatures on Monday

\"\"

And, the cold continues into Monday morning!

\"\"

Boston next 7-days (NWS) \u2014> relief/thaw arrives by next Wed/Thurs

\"\"

NYC next 7-days (NWS)

\"\"

Washington D.C. next 7-days (NWS)

\"\"

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

Very significant warming trend for the central U.S. into Days 6-10, but it now appears we have a return of a trough into following weekend before trying again to warm up the East Coast entirely.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

\"\"

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

\"\"

You can see from AIFS the trough formation at Days 7-9 again in the Northeast \u2014 that is not a warm single for Valentine\u2019s Day!

Quick Look at European Temperature Anomaly over next 15-days

\"\"

Northern Europe remains very cold \u2014 but the warmth from the Atlantic moisture feed will keep the entire Mediterranean much warmer than normal.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 9-Days

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Long Range Snowfall | EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

\"\"

Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 15-days

\"\"

Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 5 - Feb 9

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 10 - Feb 14

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 15 - Feb 19

\"\"

Much warmer across the Central and Eastern U.S. as California and the West Coast goes negative anomaly \u2014 and strongly so.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

The 5th of every month is ECMWF Seasonal Day when the 7-month forecast is released from their coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model. The ensemble plumes for the NINO3.4 box in the Pacific switch quite warm > 1.5\u00b0C by middle of summer 2026 indicating the rapid onset of El Ni\u00f1o. However, there remains uncertainty about the timing of the Ni\u00f1o onset as well as the final intensity of the Pacific warm water along the Equator.

The SST anomaly map for July 2026 from ECMWF SEA5 shows the warmth along the equator off the coast of South America suggesting a more canonical El Ni\u00f1o development. The Atlantic is a tick above the 30-year climatology but not \u201con fire\u201d as in years past suggesting a more moderate hurricane forecast not even taking into account the wind shear expected from El Ni\u00f1o raging on the Pacific. Not much more to be said at this juncture as the \u201cspring predictability barrier\u201d limits seasonal forecast skill in the Northern Hemisphere until April onward.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-5-2026-thursday-winter-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "187041423.february-5-2026-thursday-winter-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/february-5-2026-thursday-winter-weather", "slug": "february-5-2026-thursday-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/860/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/860/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "a5684f5ac721d37e70a6e8365f911e9d9a830e423e84a46afc055702e8d3c626" }